Seedy19 ✓
@seedy19tron · joined 28 Dec 2021
Biotech • sometimes not long enough, sometimes not short enough • Tweets are not investment advice Substack Sponsorship enquiries: seedy19@yahoo.com
23 586Followers
1 523Following
5 591Posts total
1.8MViews on collected posts
Son gönderiler
Yeni gönderiler aranıyor…
The full $nktr write up , reminder that $lly have to be careful here with a DOJ transcript order on the docket.
Setup is as good as they get. Verdict + AA durability + BD
STACK ‘Em
Oh and this one is COMPLETELY FREE for all to read.
https://t.co/tbHRi6EHOe
10.8K views · 92 likes
· 4 reposts · 10 replies
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@A_May_MD on a roll today. Kudos to him for keeping a sane head amidst the absurdity.
I am writing the full review ahead of the $nktr verdict tomorrow/ Monday. But compelled to share here beforehand that within a 4 week window you have a +50% or greater stacked opportunity with
14K views · 81 likes
· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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Something fundamentally broken for $abcl and $mrna to be up like this. Cant even be happy that $vera and $abvx getting some love. AT what price ☠️
15.8K views · 46 likes
· 0 reposts · 16 replies
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Added more $bhvn in the $12s read through the 8k filings SK has no walk right for the hold. There is no standalone "terminate for MAE" clause.
$bhvn position is that a rodent metabolite finding already submitted to regulators makes a regulatory pause reasonably foreseeable so
18.9K views · 51 likes
· 1 reposts · 0 replies
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@seedy19tron Rational but how long will it take to bleed there?
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Bottom line
$mrna is a declining, cash burning, serially litigated vaccine company wrapped around one real but singular oncology data point.. whilst being priced as though the platform is already validated across every tumor that matters.
The melanoma win earned a re rate; it
3.3K views · 22 likes
· 0 reposts · 4 replies
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What $MRNA is actually worth. Forget all the journos twerking.
Even crediting INT generously, the bear case lands far below the tape…because the vaccine base is worth little.. $MRNA keeps only half of INT, and the read across the stock embeds is unproven.
$mrna is an option ht
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Also below capital structure and summary.
Remember a $950m Genevant/Arbutus patent settlement hits Q3, with a further $1.3b contingent riding on a pending Federal Circuit §1498 ruling. https://t.co/1xJxBwqfoY
1.2K views · 11 likes
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The cleanest case study re if this platform generalises is $bntx autogene cevumeran… the same individualized mRNA neoantigen concept. Its 2 randomized trials have both failed including one that you must have recently heard about.
ICYMI:
A few days ago, $bntx terminated its htt
1.5K views · 11 likes
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Understanding that melanoma is the easy cancer
A neoantigen vaccine needs neoantigens. Those come from mutations. Melanoma (UV) and lung (tobacco) carry the highest mutational burden of any solid tumor an abundant, high quality target pool in an immunologically "hot"
1.5K views · 10 likes
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The choke points:
TESLA / Cell 2020
- The TESLA consortium benchmark found only ~2% of computationally predicted neoantigens are actually immunogenic.
The models mostly succeed by filtering out the 98% that don't work.
2. Reported prediction AUCs >0.85 largely measure peptide
1.5K views · 10 likes
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If you want to understand the trade more you can continue reading
Overview of the asset
INT is a genuinely elegant piece of engineering. A pts tumor is resected and sequenced (whole exome + RNA seq)…. a proprietary algorithm predicts and ranks the neoantigens most likely to
1.6K views · 10 likes
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How do you trade a setup like this?
Short with a but cover incrementally.
So trim the first tranche in the $120s ($50 higher than non risk adj melanoma fundamental line).
$70s non risk adj melanoma fundamental line + a declining vaccine franchise + melanoma only INT credit.
1.9K views · 12 likes
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Why $mrna is mispriced
1. Melanoma is the easy tumor. Highest mutational burden of any solid cancer -> the most neoantigens -> the best case for a neoantigen vaccine. The TAM lives in lowTMB tumors where the mechanism is unproven
2. The platform doesn't read across …yet. $bntx
4.2K views · 16 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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The bull case and points I concede/ respect:
1. The adjuvant melanoma data are real.. Ph2b HR 0.51 held to 5 years and the Ph 3 crossed a high interim bar
2. personalised therapy plausibly resists a conventional loss of exclusivity, supporting a higher multiple if revenue
2.2K views · 11 likes
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Last month , $mrna and $mrk announced that the Ph 3
trial of intismeran autogene (INT, mRNA4157) + Keytruda hit at a pre specified interim in resected melanoma. $mrna went from $62.96 to an intraday ~$163 and now sits near $154, a ~$36b increase in market value on a PR that
5.8K views · 19 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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The $60B+ science project $mrna
***blockbuster short thesis***
$mrna nearly 3x’d on one interim melanoma readout. The tape is priced for a platform. The science is priced for one tumor.
Target price: $30 (80%+ downside)
Market cap: $61.8B
Sell side median: $122.5 (SP 26% above)
1.7M views · 557 likes
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Aynı büyüklükteki hesaplara karşı
Son 90 güne ait 18 gönderi, 10K–100K takipçi aralığıyla yan yana. geniş kitleye gösteriliyor, ama izleyenlerin azı tepki veriyor.
Medyan görüntülenme3 352bu hesap92410K–100K için medyan
Erişim, %14.21%bu hesap3.62%10K–100K için medyan
Etkileşim, %0.61%bu hesap1.52%10K–100K için medyan
| Ölçüt | Bu hesap | 10K–100K için medyan | Oran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gönderi başına medyan görüntülenme | 3 352 | 924 | 3.63× |
| Erişim (görüntülenme ÷ takipçi) | 14.21% | 3.62% | 3.93× |
| Etkileşim oranı | 0.61% | 1.52% | 0.40× |
Bu aralıktaki diğer hesaplar → Başka bir hesapla karşılaştır → Bu kıyas değerleri nasıl kuruluyor →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
1.9K2 Sep
1.6K
1.5K
1.5K
1.5K
1.2K
3.4K
3.3K
1.1K
18.9K10 Sep
15.8K17 Sep
14K
10.8K
9.1K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.70%2 Sep
0.67%
0.71%
0.72%
0.82%
0.98%
0.41%
0.79%
0.45%
0.28%10 Sep
0.40%17 Sep
0.62%
0.98%
0.30%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes76.1%1 003 in total
Reposts2.7%35 in total
Replies7.2%95 in total
Quotes0.2%3 in total
Bookmarks13.8%182 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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