Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock · 23 Feb 2026
A recurring forecasting failure (you can almost take this one to the bank).
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Is that a lot?
0.95×vs this author's median6 430 views is typical
25Percentile for this authorof 4 recent posts
2.23×vs 10K–100K median2 743 views is typical
12.78%Reachviews ÷ followers
0.60%Engagement rateof viewers reacted