Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_ · 12 Aug 2026
Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won. Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets https://t.co/C960BY7wRW
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