David Duvenaud ✓

@DavidDuvenaud · joined 17 Jul 2013

Machine learning prof @UofT. Former team lead at Anthropic. Working on generative models, inference, & latent structure.

35 763Followers

4 297Following

1 405Posts total

1.9MViews on collected posts

Against accounts of the same size

1 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views27 303this account1 540median for 10K–100K

Reach, %76.34%this account4.74%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.96%this account1.87%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	27 303	1 540	17.7×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	76.34%	4.74%	16.1×
Engagement rate	0.96%	1.87%	0.51×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

1.1K1 Apr

1.5M27 Apr

53.7K

38K

37.8K

28.8K

28.9K

16.6K

27K

18.2K

14.5K

7.1K

22K4 May

27.3K2 Jul

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

2.19%1 Apr

0.31%27 Apr

0.34%

0.88%

0.92%

0.82%

0.57%

0.43%

0.49%

0.87%

0.96%

1.37%

0.77%4 May

0.96%2 Jul

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.87%.

What the audience does

Likes59.6%7 027 in total

Reposts6.0%710 in total

Replies3.0%354 in total

Quotes2.9%342 in total

Bookmarks28.5%3 366 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

There’s no textbook on post-AGI political economy. But there are recorded talks from the 2nd post-AGI workshop! All are now online at https://t.co/u1PBUciHhi A 🧵 of new highlights: 27.3K views · 222 likes · 32 reposts · 5 replies 02 Jul 2026 Some new speakers at our post-AGI workshop: - @paulfchristiano on "A typical, reasonably-good future" - @erikbryn on "Post-AGI Centralized Coordination" (i.e. https://t.co/7T95QPLmMl) - Sean Lavelle of the U.S. Navy on "AGI and Military Strategic Instability" 22K views · 157 likes · 12 reposts · 1 replies 04 May 2026 @DavidDuvenaud @AlecRad @status_effects wait why is it so progressive sometimes https://t.co/pLOX6xH7AA 7.1K views · 83 likes · 0 reposts · 14 replies 27 Apr 2026 We're even building a historically-appropriate OCR pipeline to avoid leakage from the future. If you’re interested in helping out, get in touch at hello@talkie-lm.com Or, feel free to download the weights and build on the models yourself! 14.5K views · 128 likes · 1 reposts · 11 replies 27 Apr 2026 We think our 13B model, trained on about 260B tokens, is the largest vintage LLM released so far. The plan is to grow the data and models, and to release a series of models with date cutoffs ranging from the early 1900s to the present day. 18.2K views · 152 likes · 1 reposts · 5 replies 27 Apr 2026 There are many ways vintage LLMs could help us understand history and culture. There are also existing related projects, such as: 1) https://t.co/91vsefnCIj with @joachim_voth 2) https://t.co/sm7vO735XZ by @Nomads4Pritzker 3) https://t.co/YmnfgKOSBI by @hla_michaelDownload 27K views · 119 likes · 9 reposts · 2 replies 27 Apr 2026 Download inference code here: https://t.co/K9XnQBgnnl https://t.co/lPPCnGl9Ov 16.6K views · 69 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies 27 Apr 2026 Download the weights here: https://t.co/859rZYYZ0T 28.9K views · 154 likes · 9 reposts · 1 replies 27 Apr 2026 Talk to the model here: https://t.co/05pDgdpTwH https://t.co/UkhyTEoyKT 28.8K views · 207 likes · 4 reposts · 17 replies 27 Apr 2026 I’m interested in historical LLMs for backtesting long-term forecasting methods. Right now it’s hard to evaluate long-term machine forecasts, since most models have recent knowledge cutoffs. But vintage LLMs could let us use the last 100 years as a test set! https://t.co/Npm8Ze 37.8K views · 321 likes · 16 reposts · 8 replies 27 Apr 2026 This model has a very different voice from modern models, and could help us understand: 1) History and cultural change, 2) LLM identity formation (what does the model think it is?), 3) Generalization to new scientific frameworks. https://t.co/ryTjfe8Oyz 38K views · 316 likes · 13 reposts · 6 replies 27 Apr 2026 Blog post with more details: https://t.co/UQaYSatQCa 53.7K views · 175 likes · 6 reposts · 4 replies 27 Apr 2026 Announcing Talkie: a new, open-weight historical LLM! We trained and finetuned a 13B model on a newly-curated dataset of only pre-1930 data. Try it below! with @AlecRad and @status_effects 🧵 https://t.co/kThUESG13e 1.5M views · 3.6K likes · 457 reposts · 199 replies 27 Apr 2026 @DavidDuvenaud If no one has a plan for what would work after AGI, we should not be rushing to build AGI. Everyone involved with Lighthaven should just stop pretending that the AI industry is compatible in any way with a human future. Time to pick a side. Bay Area transhumanis 1.1K views · 22 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 01 Apr 2026 The event is free but invite-only, please apply at https://t.co/4Y5jB1Hx6l Co-organized with @jankulveit and @raymondadouglas. 2.6K views · 37 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies 01 Apr 2026 To give you an idea of what we’re aiming for, you can take a look at the first two workshops: https://t.co/XqeqOjk5zf https://t.co/vF0Tag0RGr which were around 150 people each, with lots of lightly-moderated discussion in small groups. We’re planning for a similar format. 1.4K views · 25 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies 01 Apr 2026 An endorsement of the previous workshop from @carl_feynman: https://t.co/lnyGFIKlFh 4K views · 33 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies 01 Apr 2026 Speakers so far: - @hamandcheese on "Post-AGI Statecraft" - @AndrewCritchPhD on "Schelling Goodness" - @davidad on “The Flourishing Coalition” - @mmuthukrishna on "Cultural Evolution and Alignment" - @DavidSKrueger on "The Mechanics of Pausing AGI" - @ajeya_cotra (tentative) TBD 4.7K views · 87 likes · 3 reposts · 3 replies 01 Apr 2026 Also including - @anton_d_leicht and @sebkrier, topics TDB … and more to come! Unlike the previous two workshops, this'll be a standalone, 2-day event with a dedicated venue: https://t.co/jsiYa07mGF https://t.co/cpCnnGHaxG 1.9K views · 29 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies 01 Apr 2026 We’ll host speakers drawing from political theory, economics, mechanism design, cultural evolution, and history, and have lots of lightly-moderated breakout sessions. Find more details, and apply to attend at: https://t.co/4Y5jB1Hx6l 3.4K views · 61 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies 01 Apr 2026 No one has a plan for human flourishing after AGI, nor a clear understanding of what’s even possible. So we’re hosting a 2-day workshop at LightHaven on these topics! Link below. 🧵 https://t.co/0utBCaDwTn 64.9K views · 436 likes · 48 reposts · 27 replies 01 Apr 2026 Our new paper on AI self-conception. Just as governments or companies staffed by good people still do bad things, it's not enough to align individual AI instances. You have to align whatever institution or culture emerges. An even harder and more poorly-understood task! 7.4K views · 52 likes · 6 reposts · 1 replies 13 Mar 2026 New paper: What determines AIs’ self-conception? https://t.co/v3g55Em8ko Because AIs can be copied, rewound, and edited, they have different options for selfhood than humans. We show this is still malleable, and influences important behaviors such as self-preservation. 🧵 41.4K views · 318 likes · 65 reposts · 13 replies 13 Mar 2026 I went to the Post-AGI Workshop. It was terrific. Like, really fun, but also literally terrifying. The premise was, what if we build superintelligence, and it doesn’t kill us, what does the future look like? And nobody could think of a scenario where simultaneously (a) 19.6K views · 181 likes · 23 reposts · 28 replies 06 Dec 2025

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