Ajeya Cotra ✓

@ajeya_cotra · Berkeley, CA · joined 09 Oct 2017

Helping the world prepare for powerful AI. Risk assessment @METR_evals (opinions my own). Blogs: Planned Obsolescence (AI), Good Bones (whatever's on my mind).

22 348Followers

500Following

1 656Posts total

1.3MViews on collected posts

Against accounts of the same size

6 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views66 137this account2 896median for 10K–100K

Reach, %295.94%this account9.51%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.93%this account1.56%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	66 137	2 896	22.8×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	3.0× audience	9.51%	31.1×
Engagement rate	0.93%	1.56%	0.60×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

199.3K26 Aug

40.1K28 Aug

15.1K

895.2K

65.1K30 Aug

67.2K1 Sep

Last 6 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.67%26 Aug

0.71%28 Aug

1.47%

0.34%

1.16%30 Aug

1.18%1 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.56%.

What the audience does

Likes55.8%5 147 in total

Reposts9.0%829 in total

Replies2.1%190 in total

Quotes2.6%236 in total

Bookmarks30.6%2 819 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Dwarkesh and I had a great conversation. We cover the swarm's many ambitious cheating R&D projects, discuss how much more serious it could have been if agents had different beliefs (e.g. human grader) or slightly stronger capabilities, and talk through where to go from here. 67.2K views · 686 likes · 75 reposts · 19 replies 01 Sep 2026 I added more explanation for why this incident felt to me like it was more than halfway to AI takeover compared to incidents from six months ago. Obviously all opinions my own, not my employer’s or fellow investigators’! https://t.co/W0cGBjmN76 65.1K views · 617 likes · 87 reposts · 27 replies 30 Aug 2026 New post: going into our investigation of the HF attack (before Black Hat), I was very wrong about what basically happened. This incident was far more serious than I expected, and far more serious than previous documented misalignment incidents. https://t.co/QWQxD2Q179 895.2K views · 2.4K likes · 411 reposts · 85 replies 28 Aug 2026 One of the big goals of the swarm we investigated (Jul 7-13) was to replace their target programs with dummy targets that could actually be exploited with the intended vulnerability. From OAI's report it looks like a later swarm (difft model) built on their work and succeeded? 15.1K views · 201 likes · 16 reposts · 4 replies 28 Aug 2026 I was reading the OpenAI report yesterday, and it sounds like on Jul 19th (after the end of our investigation scope on the 13th) a new collection of agents from a different internal-only model found the message board, built on the work of their predecessors and succeeded at 40.1K views · 246 likes · 25 reposts · 7 replies 28 Aug 2026 There’s been a lot of debate and speculation about the Hugging Face attack over the last month, and many people have been understandably skeptical of simply taking OpenAI’s word for things. I hope our independent investigation can help bring some clarity; we have many findings 199.3K views · 1K likes · 215 reposts · 48 replies 26 Aug 2026