ConvexityMaven ✓
@ConvexityMaven · Laguna Beach & NYC · joined 15 Oct 2019
Creator of $MOVE Index; $PFIX; $RFIX; $MTBA Publisher of (the free) Convexity Maven Commentary https://t.co/OwX9kW3iOu
35 153Followers
1Following
266Posts total
124.9KViews on collected posts
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Trust is a two-way street...
My latest Commentary proposed that the recent rise in Interest rates is linked to a lack of Trust in the Government, rather than inflation fears.
This means the Government must also Trust the voters to support rational policies.
"President Trump
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@ConvexityMaven agree the recent rise in LT treasuries has not really been inflation driven¹; there's outta control procyclical deficit spending/stimulus; and perhaps Fed rate hikes will flatten TSY yield curve – but from where do you derive your proposal that "the market does no
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…cannot be overstated how important inflation expectations remaining anchored (compared to 2022) have been to sustaining macro economy, consumption, growth – since my "[brink of] unanchored to unhinged"¹:
1️⃣ INFLATION BREAKEVENS (tips):
down from over 2.7% to under 2.4% (5y htt
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@ConvexityMaven . . . But, but, . . . long bond yields are rising globally, as the G5 governments ramp up fiscal spending.
So more likely the rise in yields has nothing to do with TRUST . . . it has more to do with the sheer weight of government spending all over the globe. http
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@ConvexityMaven @LukeGromen From banks competing over $800B in reserves setting rates, to an IORB setting rates because almost $10T in reserves is sloshing around, all in 25 years.
1000% agree with you. Inflation is the story. Fiscal irresponsibility is what’s behind the curtai
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New Commentary....
Today I propose that the reason UST rates are touching twenty-year highs is NOT because of Inflation, but rather the market does not trust the US Government to manage its Fiscal matrix (Revenues vs Expenses).
In what can only be called gross Fiscal
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Swing....and a miss.....but it was good story. https://t.co/MYduDQb2yv
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GIF
Why the FED "should" hike by 50bps tomorrow....
https://t.co/UI7iOCTsRa
...and yes, likely will not.
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@ConvexityMaven This is silly and unserious.
Do you understand FOMC is a committee with 12 voters?
The SEP in June showed only 6 of 18 FOMC members wanted 2 or more hikes this year. Even if all 6 were voters (unlikely) you'd need 7 votes to break the deadlock.
Literally ZERO
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@ConvexityMaven There is zero chance of this firstly.
Secondly, the dynamic people keep missing is if 10y is lower, then FCI loosens and the problem worsens. The hike would be pointless.
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@ConvexityMaven Why on Earth would the Fed hike?
Bc the mkt got the data wrong and expects it later in the yr?
Imagine if they cut in Sep after all...
https://t.co/KbMhg8C7Ia
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One more cent....
I will say I can offer no economic support for a 50bp hike, rather I am looking solely at the optics and politics.
As I detailed in my Commentary - "Moral Hazard" (May 23, 2023), I believe Forward Guidance contributed greatly to the GFC, and the DOTs have
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The Jun #CPI was ice cold, perhaps even colder than that.
Objectively, there aren't many reasons to prevent the #Fed from cutting rates.
Here is the explanation in a thread.
#inflation
1/6
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Against accounts of the same size
13 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views3 677this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %10.46%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.68%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 3 677 | 924 | 3.98× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 10.46% | 3.62% | 2.89× |
| Engagement rate | 0.68% | 1.52% | 0.45× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
23.5K14 Jul
32.7K27 Jul
1.4K
1.7K
8328 Jul
13.2K
8.5K29 Jul
30.7K8 Sep
200
651
456
3.7K
8.2K10 Sep
Last 13 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.11%14 Jul
0.41%27 Jul
0.66%
0.77%
2.41%28 Jul
0.68%
0.74%29 Jul
0.68%8 Sep
1.00%
1.08%
0.22%
0.14%
0.92%10 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes68.5%511 in total
Reposts5.8%43 in total
Replies8.6%64 in total
Quotes2.4%18 in total
Bookmarks14.7%110 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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