Darkfost ✓
@Darkfost_Coc · joined 19 Jul 2017
🧩 Market Decoder and data eater 📊Verified Author for @cryptoquant_com : https://t.co/zbwEEsHD5z 🗞️Quoted by Bloomberg
10 967Followers
296Following
15 796Posts total
115.5KViews on collected posts
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🟢 The STH SOPR is starting to create an interesting move.
This is an indicator I’ve averaged over a month, which shows the amount of profit realized by STH (Short-Term Holders), meaning holders of less than 6 months.
—> It has now just reached a positive level (>1) that we http
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@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com with such a huge jump, it’s worth keeping an eye on how this affects volatility. If traders start to unwind positions quickly, we could see some wild price swings
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The cost basis of the capital invested in Bitcoin continues to act as resistance.
Currently at $79,600, it keeps preventing Bitcoin from moving up.
This is an important pivot point for Bitcoin, and breaking above it would mean bringing a majority of the capital into profit http
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@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com futures speculation is hot but spot needs to catch up
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@Darkfost_Coc @cryptoquant_com 8% in a day and suddenly the perps group chat is awake again
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🗞️ Binance Open Interest reaches 6-month high over $10B on speculative frenzy
In just 24 hours, as BTC came to retest its May high of around $82 000, open interest jumped by nearly 8%.
—> This surge in speculation pushed Binance’s open interest to its highest level in 6 months,
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🗞️ OG Bitcoin Holders Are on the Move
OG activity has intensified during this consolidation phase.
The 90-day moving average of spent UTXOs (STXO) from holders who have held BTC for more than 5 years just climbed to 1,500 BTC.
As a reminder, a UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output)
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@Darkfost_Coc @Alphractal @joao_wedson @_checkonchain @_Checkmatey_ @cryptoquant_com @AxelAdlerJr @JA_Maartun Excellent and unbiased analysis. Must read on these days.
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8. Summary
The ultra long term trend for BTC is unquestionable. Bitcoin is simply following the trajectory it was destined for, and its role as a store of value will only grow with time.
For this cycle, we’re now at a key pivot point. The next two or three weeks will be the htt
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Among US institutional or professional investors, the trend looks similar. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 15 consecutive days, breaking the upward trend in place since April.
This indicates growing sell pressure from these larger players.
ETF flows tell the same
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7. STHs under pressure
Things are becoming more challenging for STHs, whose average cost basis is around $110,500. This means the majority have now been underwater for a month. For comparison, during the March correction, this situation lasted two months.
As a result, STH SOPR h
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6. A rising sell pressure
On the opposite side, sell pressure is growing, driven by LTH activity and even very old whales.
The market continues to be driven by LTHs, those holding more than 6 months, who today control 80% of supply.
Even though most trading activity happens http
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4. Technical analysis
On the weekly timeframe, we are now hitting an important level. This week’s close is set to drop below the 50 EMA, a technical support that BTC hasn’t closed under on the weekly chart since September 2023.
Structurally, this isn’t fully bearish yet, even if
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To make this even clearer, I built a ratio comparing spot volume and futures volume on Binance. With a ratio of 0.23 today, this means that for every $1 invested in spot BTC, $4 are deployed in futures.
This casino-like market behavior results in a less stable structure, more htt
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2. Macro pressure : The hardest environment BTC has ever faced
In today’s crypto markets, macroeconomics has taken center stage. Indicators such as the DXY and US Treasury yields are now closely monitored because they reflect institutional sentiment and the global liquidity http
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BTC is entering a critical moment today, one that is creating doubt and putting real pressure on some investors.
That’s why I want to take a moment to walk through the current situation together, exactly as I see it through the data I work with every single day and that I’ve htt
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Against accounts of the same size
7 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views765this account895median for 10K–100K
Reach, %6.98%this account3.22%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.39%this account1.98%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 765 | 895 | 0.85× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 6.98% | 3.22% | 2.17× |
| Engagement rate | 0.39% | 1.98% | 0.20× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
3K16 Nov
2.3K
2K
1.9K
2.9K
2.4K
52117 Nov
2.2K5 Sep
11.9K
35
7
2.1K
116 Sep
765
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.60%16 Nov
0.71%
0.54%
0.74%
0.62%
1.65%
0.96%17 Nov
1.80%5 Sep
0.39%
0.00%
0.00%
1.95%
0.00%6 Sep
1.44%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.98%.
What the audience does
Likes66.6%418 in total
Reposts7.5%47 in total
Replies6.2%39 in total
Quotes1.6%10 in total
Bookmarks18.2%114 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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