Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓

@FRHoffmann1 · Oslo, Norway · joined 13 Apr 2019

Senior Research Fellow @IFS_Oslo / Non-Resident Fellow @CEPA Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Views are strictly my own.

52 434Followers

1 213Following

8 930Posts total

124.6KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann17 Sep

Geran-4 and Geran-5 are best characterized as low-cost cruise missiles. S-71, Banderol, and Dan-T are as well. In my view, Geran-2 is best understood as a long-range drone because its overall capability profile differs markedly from the missiles noted above. Geran-3 is a 9.1K views · 108 likes · 11 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann17 Sep

@FRHoffmann1 Forensic reports by Ukrainian military intelligence and international security groups show that the vast majority of critical microchips, processors, and navigation modules (up to 80% to 90% of the core electronic components) originate from Western manufacturers. 361 views · 2 likes · 1 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann17 Sep

@FRHoffmann1 Good article, well worth subscribing. China exports “hobby aircraft jet engines” and Europe remains as perplexed as ever. Russia has allies that dither. Ukraine has allies that dither. A mountain of shame, too high to be ever redeemed. 380 views · 12 likes · 2 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann17 Sep

@FRHoffmann1 These will be a huge problem for any ally (EU and US). They are difficult to intercept reliably, in number, including with modern systems. The volume will also increase to 5 figures. Main solution is to make our own version, which we are, but it doesn’t solve the iss 737 views · 12 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann17 Sep

Since early 2026, Russia has fielded a family of low-cost, turbojet-powered cruise missiles and dramatically scaled up production. Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands. In some raids, they already account for half or more

37.3K views · 273 likes · 111 reposts · 9 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann16 Sep

I honestly fuck the distinction. Fuck “drones” Geran-4, 5 — cruise missile S-71M — cruise missile with man in the loop S-71K — cruise missile (as any fucking powered glide bomb is a cruise missile) Banderol — cruise missile Lancet — slow ATGM Geran-2 — slow cruise missile. 31.4K views · 356 likes · 25 reposts · 13 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann14 Sep

This reminds me: Shoutout to the other 2.5 people in Europe doing missile stuff in Europe in 2020. 4.6K views · 79 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann14 Sep

A good reason to study what interests you instead of metaforecasting world events — when I started working on Russia and Iran it was a pretty fringe topic where I constantly had to justify the importance of studying both countries (more so Russia than Iran) 16.6K views · 140 likes · 11 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann131 Aug

Actual picture of @fab_hinz leaked. https://t.co/aX7ETvFREV

6.3K views · 70 likes · 1 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD ✓@FRHoffmann18 Aug

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure. Access the post here: https://t.co/lvw5Hndgfw Summary below. 1/5 https://t.co/GOHhv5p3m1

17.7K views · 97 likes · 25 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

10 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views7 728this account980median for 10K–100K

Reach, %14.74%this account3.51%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %1.22%this account1.92%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	7 728	980	7.89×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	14.74%	3.51%	4.20×
Engagement rate	1.22%	1.92%	0.63×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

17.7K8 Aug

6.3K31 Aug

16.6K4 Sep

4.6K

31.4K6 Sep

37.3K7 Sep

737

380

361

9.1K

Last 10 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.72%8 Aug

1.17%31 Aug

0.96%4 Sep

1.75%

1.27%6 Sep

1.07%7 Sep

2.04%

3.68%

0.83%

1.33%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.92%.

What the audience does

Likes72.9%1 149 in total

Reposts11.9%187 in total

Replies2.7%43 in total

Quotes1.0%15 in total

Bookmarks11.5%182 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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