Gavin Baker ✓
@GavinSBaker · Boston, MA · joined 22 Jul 2011
Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own. https://t.co/pFe9KmNu9U
348 512Followers
6 370Following
11 013Posts total
13.4MViews on collected posts
Latest posts
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@GavinSBaker It's a good model, and the CEO doesn't say it'll kill me.
2.7K views · 37 likes
· 1 reposts · 1 replies
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@GavinSBaker I feel like they are just getting started https://t.co/EdgG68JFM7
5.6K views · 67 likes
· 3 reposts · 0 replies
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@GavinSBaker Reason Dario is out here yelling "stop the count"
4.6K views · 65 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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Extraordinary share gains for OpenAI vs. Anthropic over the last two months.
Per Openrouter, OpenAI has gone from 20% share to 50% share vs. Anthropic (meaning Anthropic has gone from 80% to 50%) since June. https://t.co/zQEq4juBte
643.4K views · 3.5K likes
· 274 reposts · 222 replies
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Funny and almost right.
A scenario where OpenAI and Anthropic are a duopoly would be terrible for compute demand regardless of whether they accelerated or “paced.”
And open source losing would also be terrible for compute demand.
28.3K views · 93 likes
· 2 reposts · 6 replies
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@GavinSBaker @sk7037 Kind of weird the market viewed this as negative infrastructure. This seems wildly bullish infrastructure but highly uncertain for short term to maybe medium term model layer margin structure.
5.4K views · 41 likes
· 2 reposts · 5 replies
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More on AI pacing:
Sarah Friar CFO of OpenAI yesterday on CNBC: “from where I sit today there is so much opportunity to drive growth that I am still highly focused on getting more compute to keep that flywheel going.”
Sachin Katti VP of Compute Strategy at OpenAI @sk7037
192.2K views · 1.7K likes
· 172 reposts · 94 replies
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@GavinSBaker Why does everyone assume frontier labs are operating in a liability vacuum? Tort, defamation, product liability, consumer protection, privacy and criminal law already apply. Courts are already adjudicating AI harms under existing frameworks.
Even whether Section 230
19.9K views · 162 likes
· 16 reposts · 9 replies
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@GavinSBaker I think this could act like a tax on developing frontier models making companies like $PLTR a lot more attractive since they can keep growing by getting more customers to use the models already available across more of their business.
12.5K views · 100 likes
· 3 reposts · 0 replies
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Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made.
TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators
1.6M views · 6.5K likes
· 848 reposts · 469 replies
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@GavinSBaker Here are a few other predictions/surprises re: Anthropic:
- The (subsidized) consumer plans are actually very GM+ because the features that select for hardcore users are all pay-per-use (ultra code/review/plan + excess Fable usage)
- The recent change around "Preser
22.1K views · 109 likes
· 9 reposts · 5 replies
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@GavinSBaker Having had the pleasure to work with Krishna during his days at AirBnB and now at Anthropic, I fully agree that he’s a tremendous CFO - brilliant, practical, operational, great commercial instincts and strong feel for the investor outlook. He’s a key reason why our t
16.5K views · 54 likes
· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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@GavinSBaker All makes sense. It's possible that Anthropic has a generational leap planned pre-IPO...something like Mythos / Fable 6 as opposed to an incremental 5.2. I've heard rumors they're using something better than Fable internally.
16.3K views · 89 likes
· 1 reposts · 3 replies
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Anthropic pre-IPO gamesmanship post. Pure speculation but sharing as curious for thoughts.
Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion ARR number. Meta speculated to be over $5 billion in ARR so
1.2M views · 3.5K likes
· 274 reposts · 168 replies
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@GavinSBaker @jdudley @MollyJongFast yes - my made up conspiracy theory (that I kind of believe) is that foreign influencers are using social media etc to create this opposition to data centers and AI in America. It is almost insane to oppose it otherwise
645 views · 3 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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@GavinSBaker How would a “working class American” benefit from data centers?
23.5K views · 5 likes
· 0 reposts · 21 replies
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@GavinSBaker @MollyJongFast You need to figure out why market is pricing against you and why these communities disagree
Consistently tweeting here into the void isn’t helping
Why are there so many moratoriums
Why aren’t 10k handouts not moving the needle?
624 views · 4 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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@GavinSBaker Jensen has signed with one infra provider to host his GPUs and that is $IREN
235 views · 9 likes
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@GavinSBaker Casually very based leadership @JensenHuang, prevents AI doomers from complete regulatory capture
2.9K views · 30 likes
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The Hugging Face acquisition is important for America and I think Nvidia will be a good steward for the ecosystem. The Poolside transaction may end up mattering even more.
I think Jensen is likely to bring American open-weight AI to the frontier, which is going to be awesome for
226.3K views · 1.9K likes
· 143 reposts · 79 replies
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Grok 4.6 and Fable 5.1 are now alone on the CursorBench pareto frontier.
Should evolve rapidly over the next few weeks as Astra, Grok 4.7 and Fable 5.2 are released. https://t.co/2fU3w6DgiH
133.9K views · 1.7K likes
· 87 reposts · 93 replies
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Releasing Fable 5.1 before Astra is quite a flex.
Makes me think Fable 5.2 is ready to go.
So much gamesmanship between Anthropic and OpenAI right now.
And I am very much looking forward to the next version of Grok.
Exciting times.
175K views · 2.9K likes
· 85 reposts · 157 replies
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@GavinSBaker When someone who claims they’re super smart says that orbital AI is impossible due to cooling or whatever, but doesn’t even know things as basic as heat rejection of the radiator per m^2, coolant temp or max operating temp of the GPU 🤦♂️
607.7K views · 15.3K likes
· 749 reposts · 915 replies
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Against accounts of the same size
49 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 100K–1M follower range. shown to more people than peers of the same size.
Median views12 500this account5 983median for 100K–1M
Reach, %3.59%this account1.49%median for 100K–1M
Engagement, %0.75%this account0.93%median for 100K–1M
| Metric | This account | Median for 100K–1M | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 12 500 | 5 983 | 2.09× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 3.59% | 1.49% | 2.41× |
| Engagement rate | 0.75% | 0.93% | 0.80× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
16.3K5 Sep
16.5K
22.1K
1.6M13 Sep
12.5K
19.9K
16.9K
192.2K16 Sep
5.4K
28.3K
643.4K
4.6K
5.6K
2.7K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.57%5 Sep
0.36%
0.56%
0.50%13 Sep
0.83%
0.94%
0.65%
1.03%16 Sep
0.89%
0.36%
0.64%
1.41%
1.26%
1.43%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes74.3%39 177 in total
Reposts5.2%2 737 in total
Replies4.4%2 317 in total
Quotes1.3%697 in total
Bookmarks14.7%7 771 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
Followers by day
24 Sep
Daily snapshots since 24 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.
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