Geoffrey Fouvry ✓
@GraphCall · Madinina · joined 01 Mar 2016
Capital Markets Analysis organized & presented in big-data & augmented web. Patent US 11,327,775 B2 ex hedgie 👇 get a free account
11 479Followers
225Following
24 887Posts total
278.4KViews on collected posts
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$TSLA:
Since the Federal gov is attacking the bizz of Musk via a Federal investigation on the same day as the presentation of the business?
NO MORE CRITIQUE OF $TSLA from this poster.
🤷♂️
not today 👿
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Proposed new title for Bessent after the Druckenmiller row:
"Lil' Punk in Chief not so good bean counter"
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@GraphCall Unfortunately, until the Trump simps in Congress get voted out, Musk will get his way.
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@GraphCall Curious, generally "Canis caninam non est".
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So the Feds are now doing an investigation into the robotaxi bizz from $TSLA.
really?
it smells like there is political dead rat here. I was willing to be short $TSLA fair and square and now $TSLA Is under Federal investigation.
I was never a fan of Musk's political pivot, but
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1/6 Step one:
Make a threat on Greenland https://t.co/r3nLAN9P8g
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@GraphCall Love your work Geoffrey - keep at it.
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20/20
Now we are close to Halloween, so we are going to disclose the current number:
Data (from Federal Reserve H.4.1, as of Dec 25, 2024):
Currency in circulation (non-interest-bearing): $2,330 billion
(Source: FRED series CURRNS )
Reserve balances (interest-bearing, earn http
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19/20 The denominator is 1 - σ, and that’s why the conclusion from Rodriguez finishes that way: if the portion of money bearing interest goes to unity → hyperinflation. https://t.co/vVDWzVoLIr
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18/20
But today, China is doing a Gold external drain and the PM aritrabgers between two PM prices are actually responsible for China being able to keep its peg WITHOUT raising rates σ.Rm
(which Rodriguez showed in equation 4 raises inflation)
But let’s come back to the point h
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17/20
The Former central banker of Brazil is a traitor (attending BITCOIN conferences) @AttuchRoberto
Proof 👇
Now, let’s imagine that Brazil uses its gold warrants in Shanghai to stabilize the BRL vs. gold — what happens to σ.Rm?
The real rates asked by market participants
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16/19
But then there is another part of the digression: we showed that σ.Rm was in trouble with an external drain.
But what happens if Brazil gets paid in gold warrants on its surplus versus China? Because trying to stabilize the BRL against the USD in no way has dampened σ.Rm ,
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15/19 Thus, even if crypto bros express distrust in fiat, they are actually supporting USD fiat. The proof is in the alteration of the -g variable.
PROVEN. DONE. What a bunch of morons.
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14/20
The term “liquidity decoy” is apt because:
When investors flee the dollar due to inflation fears, they often go into Bitcoin or gold — signaling –g (falling real money demand).
But to trade those assets, they must re-enter the dollar system via stablecoins.
And those
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13/20
Core Argument
Crypto price surges → signal loss of confidence in fiat money → should reduce real money demand (–g in Rodríguez’s model).
But unlike gold or commodities, crypto doesn’t feed into CPI → no direct inflation signal → central banks don’t raise rates → no
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12/20
And now that’s where cryptocurrencies are interesting because cryptocurrencies, according to BIS Paper 141, result in demand for stablecoins — because you need stablecoins to trade cryptos.
The rising price of crypto does not impact the price index at the store, so there
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11/20
ARGENTINA. NEEDS. TO. STAY. IN. DEBT.
But then there is a second effect, which, coming back to this:
The -g is the decrease in real money demand. If people start to go for gold and other commodities because they see the commodities rise and kind of panic about money, htt
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10/20
Implications for the U.S. Quasi-Fiscal Position:
1/ Higher Rm Pressure
Less foreign demand for UST → higher term premiums → Treasury yields rise.
To maintain control of short rates, the Fed may need to raise IORB → increasing nominal and real rates on reserves (Rm). https:
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8/20
What does σ.Rm and d.V mean?
Let’s illustrate:
Brazil has a small primary deficit (d⋅V is low) but suffers from high inflation pressure because it must pay a very high real interest rate (Rm) to maintain credibility after decades of inflation.
The U.S. has a large
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7/20
So Im (the interest on money) is broken down into the real rate and inflation.
No big deal with that.
Then he substitutes DEF with:
d = DEF/Y, representing the ratio of non-interest deficit to GDP, and V is the velocity of circulation as
V = Y/M, with Y as GDP.
That ht
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6/20
Let’s continue with the interesting substitution that Rodriguez does. https://t.co/7idCUC3hbF
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5/20
And, in fact, banks like Morgan Stanley receive a massive amount of earnings coming from the IORB, and they get paid (we will explain who pays them — the public, in fact) not to lend in the real economy (which would accelerate velocity and inflation, in fact).
From Bill htt
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4/20
The 1) is, in fact, monetary growth due to the payment of interest on reserves.
Where:
M = nominal monetary base (M0),
Im = interest rate paid on money (i.e., IORB for reserves),
σ = share of M0 that is interest-bearing (i.e., reserves vs. currency),
DEF =
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3/20 Payment on IORB is a short-term fix (absorption of reserves, slowing down velocity) at the expense of massive problems down the road. Because it can end in a differential equation of “ever-increasing rates of sterilization,” and then you are in hyperinflation.
As Rodriguez
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2/20 Well, the opposite is true (long term), in fact, when the portion of interest-receiving reserves converges to 1.
IOR is convenient in the short term but lethal long term.
(Patience) https://t.co/GfUsLOsu8k
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1/20 PROVING THAT BITCOIN IS A LIQUIDITY DECOY WITH SIMPLE DIFF EQUATIONS.
“HODL” on to your socks. (a bit technical)
ALSO The Fed is semi-lying, in fact, about “We would lose control of interest rates without IOR.”
https://t.co/aaTXKHhkD4
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The Quiet Transformation Behind QT
Quantitative tightening never actually reached the long end of the curve. Since 2022, the Fed hasn’t been meaningfully reducing its holdings of 10 year and longer Treasuries, the red line keeps climbing. The so called balance sheet reduction h
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Powell's claim that IOR doesn't cost tax payers just isn't true. As he notes, Fed income is remitted to Treasury. IOR increases Fed interest expense, which reduces Fed income. So the higher IOR, the less remittance to Treasury.
(btw there are still good reasons to have IOR) http
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Against accounts of the same size
6 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views787this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %6.86%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.79%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 787 | 924 | 0.85× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 6.86% | 3.62% | 1.89× |
| Engagement rate | 0.79% | 1.52% | 0.52× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
1.5K15 Oct
1.4K
1.6K
1.4K
1.3K
2.1K
2.2K
592
1.1K4 Sep
1.7K
79
154
518
1.1K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.30%15 Oct
1.53%
0.69%
0.94%
0.98%
0.80%
1.25%
1.35%
0.57%4 Sep
1.01%
2.53%
2.60%
0.58%
0.56%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes66.2%899 in total
Reposts8.0%108 in total
Replies8.2%112 in total
Quotes2.2%30 in total
Bookmarks15.4%209 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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Frequently asked questions about @GraphCall
How many followers does @GraphCall have?
11 479 followers.
How many posts has @GraphCall published?
24 887 posts.
How do posts by @GraphCall perform?
Collected posts: 28. Views: 278 368. Likes: 899.