Jason Abaluck ✓

@Jabaluck · New Haven, CT · joined 30 Apr 2009

Professor of Economics at Yale SOM

16 275Followers

512Following

13 718Posts total

791.1KViews on collected posts

Against accounts of the same size

7 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views28 417this account2 043median for 10K–100K

Reach, %174.61%this account6.16%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.63%this account1.59%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	28 417	2 043	13.9×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	174.61%	6.16%	28.4×
Engagement rate	0.63%	1.59%	0.39×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

69.1K31 Aug

1.4K1 Sep

1.9K

28.4K3 Sep

616K

68.7K

5.6K4 Sep

Last 7 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.63%31 Aug

1.20%1 Sep

0.05%

0.46%3 Sep

0.32%

1.26%

0.69%4 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.59%.

What the audience does

Likes71.1%2 915 in total

Reposts8.0%328 in total

Replies3.4%139 in total

Quotes2.4%100 in total

Bookmarks15.0%615 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Pay more attention to people (or models) who forecast well, period. Reject rationalizations for why their past success might be temporary. These rationalizations always exist, but empirically, forecasting success is highly persistent over time. 5.6K views · 34 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies 04 Sep 2026 The most powerful chess engines work by training a value function to evaluate positions and then doing an extensive, highly optimized tree search, calculating a vast number of possible lines. A 2024 paper (link below) showed that chess engines can reach grandmaster strength 68.7K views · 762 likes · 68 reposts · 23 replies 03 Sep 2026 GPT-6 Astra appears to be a massive jump in opaque reasoning ability: it looks like it can solve hard competition math problems entirely in its head (as in, without verbalized reasoning) while prior AIs could solve basic word problems. This seems extremely concerning! That is, 616K views · 1.6K likes · 229 reposts · 51 replies 03 Sep 2026 I think there are some people who have a crazy worldview but they pay close attention to AI developments and so can make reasonable short term predictions. Unfortunately others see that is a reason to adopt the crazy worldview. 28.4K views · 101 likes · 10 reposts · 15 replies 03 Sep 2026 In this instance, I think Gary Marcus is correct. 1.9K views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies 01 Sep 2026 Frontier labs will take shortcuts when they feel like they are behind to catch up in capabilities. This will become increasingly dangerous as capabilities increase. Self-regulation by labs will be insufficient to deal with this problem. 1.4K views · 15 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies 01 Sep 2026 One million dollars says you are wrong, @elonmusk. Reply if you are not a chicken. 69.1K views · 359 likes · 20 reposts · 46 replies 31 Aug 2026 I thought I'd try to reconstruct Bryan's discussion with a 13-year-old about the minimum wage based on the below tweet: (@bryan_caplan let me know if anything is inaccurate) 0 views · 2.7K likes · 457 reposts · 41 replies 22 Aug 2022 Took me under 5 minutes to turn a normal, smart 13-year-old against the minimum wage. Contrary to almost everyone, the textbook argument IS intuitive. It's just emotionally unappealing. 0 views · 1.1K likes · 47 reposts · 508 replies 17 Aug 2022