Javier Molina ✓
@Molina_Jorda · Mallorca, Madrid. · joined 09 Jan 2016
Independent voice in the CryptoSpace. 📊 Analyst eToro. Host of Digital Assets Forum @elconfidencial. 🎙️ Bridging TradFi & Web3. @RCD_Mallorca fan ⚽
10 133Followers
102Following
3 974Posts total
3KViews on collected posts
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#Bitcoin’s move above $81K looks credible, but it isn’t confirmed.
$83K = breakout
$80K = must hold
$77K = bull-trap warning
ETF inflows bring real demand; short liquidations brought acceleration.
My base case: 60–65% continuation.
No #FOMO. Let price confirm. NFA.
#BTC htt
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#Bitcoin ya ha hecho lo fácil...
Ahora tiene que demostrar algo más importante => que existen compradores dispuestos a sostener precios más altos sin depender del cierre de cortos.
Las claves:
→ $75.8K–77K debe convertirse en soporte
→ $81.5K–83K es la verdadera zona de https:
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8/ That's the trap.
The days that move the whole return are the days you're most likely to be out of the market.
If you exit in fear, you miss the exact sessions that drive a decade of gains.
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9/ Conclusion:
In bitcoin, 1–3 months and 5–20 days a year decide almost everything.
Trying to time the exit means, almost by definition, missing those days.
The backtest is clear: staying invested crushes market timing. https://t.co/LFkgGOSQlV
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7/ Let that sink in.
Missing the 12 best months — less than 9% of all months — turns a +19,821% return into +69%.
CAGR drops from 56% to 4.5%. Worse than fixed income. Over the same years Bitcoin went up ~200x.
==> The paradox:
The best days don't happen in euphoria. They
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6/ Going monthly makes it worse.
The best months bundle many of the best days, so missing a month = missing every key day inside it.
Buy & hold: +19,821% (CAGR 56.4%)
Without 1 best month: +11,644% (49.6%)
Without 3 best months: +4,380% (37.9%)
Without 12 best months: +69%
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5/ Now the painful part — what if you miss them?
- Buy & hold: +16,755% (CAGR 53.7%)
- Without 5 best days: +6,351% (41.8%)
- Without 10 best days: +2,932% (33.1%)
- Without 20 best days: +755% (19.7%)
==> 5 days out of 4,358 cut your return by 60%+. https://t.co/gXf4LO2Cs3
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4/ Daily concentration (avg 2015–2025):
Top 5 days → 15% of the year's gain
Top 10 days → 25%
Top 20 days → 39%
20 sessions out of 365 drive almost 40% of the upside.
And it's consistent across bull and bear years. https://t.co/jv7YHMm2rp
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3/ The core finding:
Bitcoin's gains are brutally concentrated in very few sessions.
A single month explains ~32% of the year's gross gain.
3 months explain 71%.
Half the year is basically noise. https://t.co/vLoYWLzVuw
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2/ The setup:
Daily + monthly closes of BTC-USD
Sep 17, 2014: $457
Aug 22, 2026: $77,083
4,358 sessions / 143 months
2 full bull cycles, 2 brutal bear markets
Buy & hold returned +16,755% (daily) / +19,821% (monthly).
CAGR: 53.7%–56.4%.
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#bitcoin: the market timing myth
1/ Most people think they can outsmart #BTC by timing the market.
The data says the opposite.
A backtest of BTC-USD from 2014 to 2026 shows that missing just a few days or months a year destroys your returns.
Here's what the numbers actually
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La SEC acaba de plantear algo mucho más importante que decidir si un #token es o no un #Security .
Un proyecto podría captar capital bajo regulación, desarrollar su red y, cuando deje de depender de los esfuerzos del promotor, el token podría separarse del investment contract ht
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El mercado ya no duda de la #IA. Duda del retorno de la inversión.
La inflación mejora, pero eso ya no basta.
Ahora la pregunta es otra => ¿seguirán #Alphabet, #Microsoft, #Amazon y #Meta invirtiendo miles de millones en IA al mismo ritmo si el retorno tarda más de lo esperado?
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Against accounts of the same size
12 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. reaches fewer people than peers, but engages them much harder.
Median views77this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %0.76%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %2.93%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 77 | 924 | 0.08× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 0.76% | 3.62% | 0.21× |
| Engagement rate | 2.93% | 1.52% | 1.93× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
62819 Jul
38919 Aug
70123 Aug
73
42
23
15
12
32
83
81
63130 Aug
2814 Sep
Last 13 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
1.11%19 Jul
1.54%19 Aug
1.14%23 Aug
2.74%
4.76%
4.35%
6.67%
8.33%
3.12%
3.61%
1.23%
1.58%30 Aug
1.42%4 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes62.5%30 in total
Reposts12.5%6 in total
Replies22.9%11 in total
Bookmarks2.1%1 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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