David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. ✓
@PolarityRadio · New York · joined 24 Jun 2014
Geometry drives markets not poetry. Risk field theory in N-dimension. We quantize data. Subscribe at https://t.co/0d13D7w3KV not through the App. Not investment advice.
21 068Followers
207Following
55 242Posts total
990.3KViews on collected posts
Latest posts
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Half a basis point the 200WMA https://t.co/TkjbMZVWsb
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Treasury futures are closed and we have a lower weekly closed today then at any time in the last 54 weeks there are two days left, but don’t fight the curves.
Feel free to fight the fed, but don’t fight the curves.
Under conservation of duration, curve propagation is key! http
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New high for relative funding costs of CCC rated debt versus the rest. https://t.co/Vl0E1KwApT
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312 billion at this point as the upside of buybacks in an environment with issuance of bonds at only 444 billion means more than 70% of all issued bonds will find the liquidity in the two final coupon payments of a bond in the year of expiry plus up to 312 billion which could htt
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The MOVE index, a treasury volatility index, as we have repeatedly said on our spaces and on in our earlier posts that the geometry of markets signals it must enter a death cross on a monthly basis which we just have and you could see 50 months ago in the rearview mirror was ht
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You can see the 5-year 10-year curve the “fight” is below both its weekly and monthly 50 period and 200 period moving averages and this is a significant funding source for US mortgages through futures and as this flattens it reduces the funding cost to buy mortgages on leverage h
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Market participants must understand the direct effects of policy interference from the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the Department of War.
These actions create virtual pairs of savings and anti-savings, similar to particle-antiparticle pairs in the evaporation process of a
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@PolarityRadio Very informative post david. Hope people will see this and absorb the knowledge out of it.
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The geometry of markets predicts the following.
The most precious thing in markets right now is distilled US and Japanese duration.
There will be an increasing shortage of both.
- Yield Curve flattening, inversion & duration: The US currently has an increasing glut of
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Can you see it yet?
The FOMC
ended $1T of QT
began $1/2T of QE light
reduced policy rates by 175bp.
Nasdaq 100 has underperformed the SPX since 7/10/2024
NDX has only outperformed the SPX BY 11% since March 10, 2000 excluding dividends
The total return of the NDX is
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The end of the Iran conflict won’t reverse trend because the Iran war didn’t start on 7/10/24
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This is not a correction. It’s a durable polarity shift
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This is not a beta correction.
It’s a durable polarity shift
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We are dilating XLY into AMZN TSLA and everything else which will hold up better.
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Against accounts of the same size
15 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. ordinary reach for its size, weaker reaction than most.
Median views823this account1 088median for 10K–100K
Reach, %3.91%this account3.86%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.35%this account1.66%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 823 | 1 088 | 0.76× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 3.91% | 3.86% | 1.01× |
| Engagement rate | 0.35% | 1.66% | 0.21× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
5561 Sep
7.7K7 Sep
966
1.2K
167
749
823
650
1398 Sep
575
1.6K9 Sep
1.4K
1.5K
1.2K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.00%1 Sep
0.46%7 Sep
0.52%
0.32%
1.80%
0.40%
0.24%
0.77%
0.00%8 Sep
0.00%
0.43%9 Sep
0.35%
0.76%
0.25%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.66%.
What the audience does
Likes59.1%149 in total
Reposts7.5%19 in total
Replies7.5%19 in total
Bookmarks25.8%65 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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