Darren r-σ²/2 ✓

@ReformedTrader · joined 18 Jul 2011

Trend, value, quality, carry, volatility. Tentmaker (eating vol-targeted Sortino to fund Christian work). See the pinned tweet for compound return generators.

16 000Followers

150Following

41 532Posts total

26.3KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader9 Sep

Mondays and Fridays have tended toward higher volatility and lower trading volume, but speculators showed up anyway and took larger shares of thinner volume. Although the paper (Interday Variations in Volume, Variance and Participation of Large Speculators by Chang et al.) https

1.4K views · 11 likes · 2 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader7 Sep

Longer-term factor returns show a different pattern. For the factors that retail traders take the opposite side of, the alphas take longer to show up rather than disappearing altogether. Today, returns are earned through patience. Anomalies Never Disappeared: The Case of https

4.9K views · 32 likes · 2 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader5 Sep

Leveraged ETFs are a bad idea for low-Sharpe, high-vol single stocks. They work better for a diversified stock/Treasury/gold/trend mix. The leverage that empirically maximized compound returns in @the_green_lark's chart is similar to the theoretical Kelly leverage https://t.co/Q

6.5K views · 52 likes · 1 reposts · 4 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader5 Sep

Historical CAGR starting 1985 as a function of leverage. Single-stock leveraged ETFs generally aren't suitable for long-time holding, though there may be exceptions like BRKA, which is effectively an index and behaves similar under leverage as the market. Some leverage makes a

9.2K views · 48 likes · 4 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader4 Sep

I thought I was brave, but this wins some kind of prize. Assuming an expected Sharpe ratio of 1.0 with no skewness and no excess kurtosis, 100 vol is full Kelly. I wouldn't mind having something like QDSIX at 30 vol, though. 4.3K views · 15 likes · 0 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader8 Nov 2021

1/ How do you maximize compound returns? A. Don't use too much risk. B. Don't rely on bounce-backs. C. Appropriate risk depends on expected Sharpe ratios. D. Diversification increases Sharpes. E. Hedge the (relevant) tails. "Rule #1: Never lose money." https://t.co/t6Dim26To0 0 views · 383 likes · 68 reposts · 14 replies Open on X →

Darren r-σ²/2 ✓@ReformedTrader25 Oct 2021

1/ Fortune's Formula (William Poundstone) "Even unlikely events must eventually come to pass. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything eventually _will_ lose everything. The compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails." https://t.co/A12uEMNT15 h

0 views · 398 likes · 83 reposts · 16 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

5 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views4 903this account924median for 10K–100K

Reach, %30.64%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.69%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	4 903	924	5.31×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	30.64%	3.62%	8.47×
Engagement rate	0.69%	1.52%	0.46×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

4.3K4 Sep

9.2K5 Sep

6.5K

4.9K7 Sep

1.4K9 Sep

Last 5 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.47%4 Sep

0.64%5 Sep

0.87%

0.69%7 Sep

1.01%9 Sep

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes55.1%158 in total

Reposts3.1%9 in total

Replies5.9%17 in total

Bookmarks35.9%103 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.