SouthernValue ✓
@SouthernValue95 · Boston, MA · joined 22 Jun 2019
Infinitely curious. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” - Charlie Munger
38 807Followers
1 810Following
7 737Posts total
1.9MViews on collected posts
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@SouthernValue95 They have to build it, but the street is throwing a fit over the upfront capex bills today. Sitting right on weekly support at 491.50 now. If that level snaps, nobody is going to care about the 2032 capacity story until the selling stops
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@SouthernValue95 This is just their current plan for self-build.
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@SouthernValue95 $MSFT’s ramp to 38GW feels aggressive but the recent inflection in starts and leases backs it up. Curious if @thejudgejordan sees them closing that gap with $AMZN by 2028.
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I expect $MSFT will ultimately do a lot more than this (including Neos). 12GW -> 38GW over 6yrs is ~4GW per year which is basically what they are doing this year. Starts/leases/Neo deals recently inflected, and could catch up to AMZN/GOOG at ~8GW/yr by 2028. But there will be a
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@SouthernValue95 Payback period says nothing about what happens between year two and year five — the whole depreciation argument is about whether the asset still earns at that rate once the next generation ships, and a fast payback is consistent with both "great economics" and "w
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$GOOG GCP CEO Kurian at GS:
“Our payback period on AI servers is <2yrs, and on our own silicon it’s half that… and the majority of infra contracts are 5yr committed contracts.”
This suggests that $GOOG is earning ~$20B per GW on TPU servers, which cost ~half of a GPU server.
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Astra will probably sell some serious tokens - better than fable without the data retention policy. Given $MSFT license to use OpenAI models for free, and vertically integrated infrastructure, Astra tokens on MSFT Foundry are likely one of the most profitable AI revenue streams
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Long post below... but the point is simply this:
- We may be ramping chips faster than real world constraints on power/shells (@elonmusk also made this same point this week)... this could lead to alleviation in chip bottlenecks (i.e., memory) before industrial bottlenecks.
-
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$NVDA is guiding to >70% growth in FY27, $AVGO to 100% growth, both are supply constrained and say real demand is higher.
$AVGO went a step beyond and guided to >100% growth again in FY28, with >20GW of XPU demand from just $GOOG $META Anthropic and OpenAI, plus two other
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@SouthernValue95 Hi Southern, I am mostly an ETF guy. Only two companies I consistently build positions in monthly are Google and Microsoft because I semi “understand” what they offer. Was tough hoarding it all year but happy we got some juice this week. Hoping it’s “safe” for th
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@SouthernValue95 Some are concerned that the Azure revenue growth is associated mainly with Anthropic and OpenAI business and that comes down it will materially impact their earnings. If you strip those two out, some say the earnings increase was only 8%
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@SouthernValue95 What do you think of $msft cyber security positioning ?
Could be a huge opportunity for them , but not sure how well they're set up for it
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$MSFT is still down on the year, and <20x my estimate of CY27 EPS. With Azure growing mid-high 40s, and M365 commercial ($100B business) soon to accelerate to the 20s, I think multiple expansion is warranted. The vast majority of MSFT revenue and profits are clearly benefitting h
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@SouthernValue95 Add $AMZN's results on top...there's potential to keep ripping here.
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Adding my $2.25 of M365 upside to $23.50 of consensus EPS, and MSFT could closer to ~$26 in FY28. Thats before what I think are a few dollars of EPS upside potential in Azure.
At 25x $26 of FY28 EPS in 1yr, MSFT could trade at $650. Thats another +40% upside from here.
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If I assume that Copilot can sustain +10M paid seats/qtr, it would reach ~110M seats (~22% penetration) by FY28. Separately, if I assume that MSFT is able to get 10% penetration of its premium E7 Agent security and orchestration SKU, and that otherwise the business grows at https
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Despite a +16% move today, the market may still be under-reacting to $MSFTs results last night (still down on yr).
Azure growing +43% and guiding to +45% grabbed the headlines, but MSFT was in its worst performance stretch since the GFC, and lowest valuation in a decade, https:
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Copilot paid user growth accelerated from +5M in 3Q to +10M in 4Q. Copilot revenue grew +60% sequentially.
As I tweeted a few months ago - MSFT copilot only "got good" recently and the world is still waking up to that, including customers and MSFTs commercial organization.
If
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$MSFT is probably the cleanest big cap from here, combining a compelling valuation, earnings durability, earnings momentum, and improving competitive position.
Azure will soon be >half the business growing mid-high 40s w/ 40% margins, so it alone can drive >20% growth for the
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$MSFT release velocity up meaningfully. Azure inflecting, again (from 30 to 40 last year, now into 40s in 2H26). Commercial office is one of the only application software businesses to accelerate right now, and that is before copilot got good in the last few weeks.
Stock
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Against accounts of the same size
24 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views7 498this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %19.32%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.46%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 7 498 | 924 | 8.11× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 19.32% | 3.62% | 5.34× |
| Engagement rate | 0.46% | 1.52% | 0.31× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
3.8K1 Aug
39K2 Sep
10.7K
33.5K3 Sep
21.6K
13.7K4 Sep
33.5K8 Sep
1.1K
1K
650
16K10 Sep
178
149
1511 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.16%1 Aug
2.04%2 Sep
0.23%
0.23%3 Sep
0.50%
0.71%4 Sep
1.01%8 Sep
0.28%
0.78%
0.46%
0.51%10 Sep
0.00%
0.67%
0.00%11 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes60.1%3 579 in total
Reposts3.6%214 in total
Replies2.5%151 in total
Quotes0.7%43 in total
Bookmarks33.1%1 971 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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