Timo Riske
@Timo_NFL · Germany · joined 03 Jan 2017
Mathematician, Data science @PFF. A simple mind thinks everything that didn't happen couldn't have happened. Tweets/opinions are my own.
34 100Followers
115Following
57 086Posts total
2.1MViews on collected posts
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for LSU is that players on NFL rosters or on their roster?,,
5.6K views · 8 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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An interesting quirk is that pre-season expectations for teams have changed. The ratings aren't symmetric anymore:
2006-2017: Almost perfectly symmetric.
Since 2017: Perceived tanking priced in, less great, more good not great teams in terms of expectations. https://t.co/T5fzSS
4.4K views · 37 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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Hardest 7-game stretches, observed pre-season by market implied team strength, since 2006
LAC 2026, weeks 3-10, +4.77 harder than avg.
BUF 2023, 9-16, 4.25
NYG 2011, 8-14, 4.15
IND 2008, 7-13, 4.07
ARI 2026, 5-11, 4.06
NYG 2025, 6-12, 3.65
TB 2006, 10-16, 3.55
KC 2022, 1-7, 3.54
36.8K views · 272 likes
· 20 reposts · 9 replies
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Fwiw I just looked at the data again and used pre-season ratings (which are 60-90% regressed to the betting market implied team strengths prior to the season) and this puts this Chargers 7-game stretch as the absolute most hardest since 2016.
2.4K views · 17 likes
· 3 reposts · 0 replies
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If my data is right, the two highest instances of number of first downs gained via penalty for an offense in a single game since 2019 both happened against the Ravens defense.
The Ravens won both games.
6.4K views · 74 likes
· 4 reposts · 2 replies
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Depending on how those teams above develop throughout the season, I feel like there is a real chance this Chargers stretch will be the new absolute hardest stretch in retrospective when things have played out.
3.5K views · 18 likes
· 2 reposts · 1 replies
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@Timo_NFL KC and Houston coming off bye weeks as well....and Buffalo on a mini bye.
1.2K views · 7 likes
· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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two harder 7-game stretches in the data: 2024 Bears and 2020 Niners. Brutal.
Miss the time where you could always bank on Shanahan beating McVay with whatever he had at QB, lol https://t.co/EznanTwvmR
3.3K views · 24 likes
· 1 reposts · 2 replies
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Based on opponents and homefield, the average game in this stretch is 4.83 points harder than average based on pre-season ratings.
top 10 hardest 7 game stretch since 2016 (compared stretches are based on end-of-season ratings when top teams are rated higher)
98.9K views · 275 likes
· 23 reposts · 4 replies
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The Chargers have the hardest 8 game stretch in NFL history dude LMAO https://t.co/Pqcm0Nu1Z4
1.3M views · 14.6K likes
· 611 reposts · 283 replies
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@PFF_Moo This was super interesting, loved the way it walked through everything
477 views · 1 likes
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@PFF_Moo Positional value aligns fairly closely with my finding, though WRs are in tier 1 here versus tier 2 for me. I still think I'd lean towards tier 2 since there have been more hits in the 2nd and 3rd round, but it's debatable. WR salaries have jumped a lot https://t.co/KfeU
2.6K views · 14 likes
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@PFF_Moo Re: Monetary value of picks
Cleveland paid 16M for a second (Osweiler trade) back in 2017 - seems like that was a gross overpay if they are only worth 15-20M on today's scale
5.4K views · 3 likes
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Lots of analytical draft analysis comes with a lot of uncertainty due to small sample sizes and the league changing over time.
Hence I thought of a method to compute the value of draft picks intrinsically. Here it is:
https://t.co/HmAB5JquEZ
607.8K views · 145 likes
· 18 reposts · 17 replies
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Against accounts of the same size
10 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views4 975this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %14.59%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.82%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 4 975 | 924 | 5.38× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 14.59% | 3.62% | 4.03× |
| Engagement rate | 0.82% | 1.52% | 0.54× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
607.8K24 Apr
5.4K
2.6K
477
1.3M1 Sep
98.9K2 Sep
3.3K
1.2K
3.5K
6.4K
2.4K
36.8K
4.4K
5.6K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.03%24 Apr
0.07%
0.62%
0.21%
1.19%1 Sep
0.31%2 Sep
0.81%
0.67%
0.59%
1.25%
0.88%
0.83%
0.87%
0.14%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes90.9%15 458 in total
Reposts4.0%682 in total
Replies1.9%322 in total
Quotes2.4%401 in total
Bookmarks0.8%141 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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Frequently asked questions about @Timo_NFL
How many followers does @Timo_NFL have?
34 100 followers.
How many posts has @Timo_NFL published?
57 086 posts.
How do posts by @Timo_NFL perform?
Collected posts: 14. Views: 2 111 717. Likes: 15 458.