Ben Moll ✓
@ben_moll · joined 07 Jan 2019
Sir John Hicks Professor of Economics, @LSEecon. Macroeconomics with distribution(s). Coeditor of the American Economic Review.
28 506Followers
1 545Following
7 272Posts total
1.1MViews on collected posts
Latest posts
Looking for new posts…
p.s. for those who want to join but don't have a counterparty
https://t.co/yxwh1Pk8eN
864 views · 3 likes
· 0 reposts · 0 replies
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@ben_moll @robinhanson @phl43 @SashaKaletsky @_gabrielunger @jankulveit @SamuelAlbanie Is there a secondary market if odds evolve and one wants to cash out?
2.1K views · 19 likes
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Some new joiners for a total pot size of $575k!
On my side:
@robinhanson
@phl43
@SashaKaletsky
@_gabrielunger
On the fast-growth side:
@jankulveit
plus @SamuelAlbanie continuing to increase his stake 😮
https://t.co/NSQZKbfBIy https://t.co/clu33YOs1I
59.8K views · 93 likes
· 10 reposts · 19 replies
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Those interested in making bets on explosive economic growth due to AI can now make these on Kalshi without emailing @ben_moll. Liquidity is thin, but with the right incentives / subsidies I think these markets can be highly informative.
https://t.co/RMONIKBEWg
39.4K views · 74 likes
· 14 reposts · 7 replies
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Taxes on wealth or unrealized capital gains are a bad idea. Not just because of all the well-known implementation issues. But also in theory.
Our paper, now forthcoming in Econometrica:
67.2K views · 687 likes
· 142 reposts · 18 replies
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When Jeff Bezos's Amazon stock doubles, should his tax bill? No, say Mark Aguiar, @ben_moll and @Florian_Scheuer: optimal taxes target realized net trades plus cash flows—not wealth or unrealized gains—while avoiding lock-in, whatever moves asset prices.
https://t.co/2KbRlLemev h
62.3K views · 240 likes
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@ben_moll @alexolegimas @SamuelAlbanie I'd happily take the no-growth side of this bet, at these odds.
1.4K views · 28 likes
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@ben_moll @alexolegimas @SamuelAlbanie It’s fun to see where people put their money where their mouth is. But also, who has this kind of money lying around??? Clearly I chose the wrong line of work
1.3K views · 15 likes
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@ben_moll @alexolegimas @SamuelAlbanie Can you take me on the "no fast growth" side Ben?
1.4K views · 12 likes
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Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake!
Total size of pot now $425,000!
https://t.co/NSQZKbfBIy https://t.co/CzACD8oe1l
163.5K views · 274 likes
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@ben_moll @dwarkesh_sp @dylan522p Thanks it was great. Okay so I read this and it's not quite the question Dwarkesh and I were debating, but it's obviously related and I'd be up for getting in on your side of the bet because I think you're right.
I'd have to think more about how
5K views · 1 likes
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Hey @dwarkesh_sp, @dylan522p and @phl43, would you perhaps be interested in getting in on the bet below?
Great episode by the way, I very much enjoyed it https://t.co/VmyggJZlSe https://t.co/UKCdWmXID7
46.4K views · 122 likes
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@ben_moll @willmacaskill @SamuelAlbanie @tomcohen @andrewho03 The genius is that if we get explosive growth the amount you just bet becomes tiny
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And thanks to @_sholtodouglas for inspiring the bet
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If anyone can find a counterparty to participate at the same odds, please DM me and we may be able to include you.
Only complete party-counterparty pairs at 4:1 odds please and only stakes ≥ $10k (inflation adjusted as in the linked terms).
7.5K views · 33 likes
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Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side.
Here are the final terms we agreed on https://t.co/NSQZKbfBIy
More (within) ~7 years from now 😃 https://t.co/8Ta8sjm9jB
182.3K views · 422 likes
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Would anyone like to take the other side of the following bet? I bet you (say) $25k inflation-adjusted that U.S. per capita real GDP growth will be <15% per annum in 2033 or any year before that. (15% implies a doubling time of ~5 years.)
Note: I'm extremely bullish on AI and...
122.5K views · 302 likes
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How fast could the economy double? TLDR, once we have good enough AI and tens of millions of robots - very fast.
As crazy as it feels now - it is worth pricing in economic doublings into your mental models of the 2030s. Strongly recommend reading this series of blog posts by ht
292.1K views · 1.7K likes
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For those interested, here are my slides from yesterday's Cowles Lecture at the Econometric Society Meetings @YaleCowles @econometricsoc
https://t.co/HilQnlxMEG
Thanks so much for listening and for the great discussion and comments! https://t.co/j2oUIQCxEz
69K views · 532 likes
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Against accounts of the same size
19 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views7 530this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %26.42%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.42%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 7 530 | 924 | 8.15× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 26.42% | 3.62% | 7.30× |
| Engagement rate | 0.42% | 1.52% | 0.28× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
1.1K27 Aug
46.4K29 Aug
5K30 Aug
3K31 Aug
163.5K1 Sep
1.4K
1.3K
1.4K
62.3K4 Sep
67.2K
39.4K
59.8K11 Sep
2.1K
86412 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
2.79%27 Aug
0.31%29 Aug
0.06%30 Aug
0.13%31 Aug
0.20%1 Sep
0.84%
1.34%
2.18%
0.47%4 Sep
1.28%
0.24%
0.20%11 Sep
0.99%
0.35%12 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes68.1%4 651 in total
Reposts7.9%543 in total
Replies3.2%217 in total
Quotes1.8%123 in total
Bookmarks19.0%1 299 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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