Cullen Roche ✓
@cullenroche · Encinitas, CA · joined 27 Feb 2009
Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author of Your Perfect Portfolio & Pragmatic Capitalism 📖| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸
98 231Followers
2 052Following
44 563Posts total
275.4KViews on collected posts
Latest posts
Looking for new posts…
I'll be at Future Proof this year. If you are into leg day or asset liability matching let's meet up.
4.8K views · 19 likes
· 0 reposts · 4 replies
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FUTURE PROOF 2026 WHAT'S GOOD??!!!
https://t.co/LzRWBbMoQK https://t.co/T8PLceB6It
7.4K views · 10 likes
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@cullenroche All true. But I’d argue 10% short duration bonds are a substitute for cash, helping mitigate sequence of return risk for retirees.
276 views · 3 likes
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Buffett does 90/10 right. He disaggregates the 10 from the 90. More importantly, Buffett is essentially running an emergency fund which requires liquidity (break glass in case of stock downturn). So he barbells the 10 by making it TBills. That means he actually has access to the
2.2K views · 12 likes
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Here's the problem with a 90/10 portfolio like the one UC just launched as an ETF:
When you mix stocks and bonds into a multi-asset instrument you a create a blended instrument that starts to average the characteristics of the two instruments. But the problem is stocks are https
24.6K views · 119 likes
· 5 reposts · 23 replies
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@EconomPic @choffstein The 90-10 allocation triggers me. The bonds aren't large enough to do anything. And so it's basically just a 100% equity allocation with a dumb return drag. https://t.co/j7y6HtBoKo
26.3K views · 37 likes
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@cullenroche Amazing free money laying around if you have a decent sized pile of savings and are willing to learn the fixed income interface on Fidelity or Schwab.
3.8K views · 19 likes
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For near-term liability matching "TBill and Chill" is still the move.
7.1K views · 26 likes
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The biggest "high yield" savings account in the USA pays 3%.
1 year TBills pay 4.3%. At California's top tax rate you'd need a 4.95% tax equivalent yield from the High Yield Savings Account.
They should call these things low yield savings accounts.
109.1K views · 218 likes
· 8 reposts · 42 replies
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Maybe the two best fitness devices I've ever purchased:
1) Belt squat lever. The ultimate squat machine with no spine compression risk. Absolutely awesome.
2) Assault bike. Great full body cardio machine. Amazing for HIIT workouts and does what it says - assaults your whole
22.9K views · 92 likes
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Druck's been predicting a crisis in US government bonds for 40 damn years and people think AI created an inauthentic narrative here? :-)
23.4K views · 155 likes
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Here's a short interview I did last week. We did a full macro rundown:
1) Labor market stinks, but not collapsing due to AI. Firms are just cautious to hire.
2) No recession on the horizon as the VERY famous Roche Recession Rule shows. :-)
3) Inflation got sticky again. The
9.6K views · 37 likes
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📉 "The linchpin in all of this continues to be these big tech firms continuing to do huge amounts of CapEx" says @cullenroche
Massive AI spending is becoming increasingly important to the broader economy and markets. https://t.co/QqdIYpk5oN
10.1K views · 8 likes
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Here’s a new Three Things for your weekend:
1) Why the Treasury Buyback program is like taking Ozempic while eating 4,000 calories a day.
2) Is it FINALLY time to panic about US government debt and an impending crisis?
3) Should you be jumping into 30 years TIPS at 3%?
I
23.9K views · 122 likes
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Against accounts of the same size
14 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views9 852this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %10.03%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.48%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 9 852 | 924 | 10.7× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 10.03% | 3.62% | 2.77× |
| Engagement rate | 0.48% | 1.52% | 0.31× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
23.9K22 Aug
10.1K24 Aug
9.6K
23.4K25 Aug
22.9K30 Aug
109.1K2 Sep
7.1K
3.8K
26.3K3 Sep
24.6K
2.2K
276
7.4K
4.8K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.69%22 Aug
0.10%24 Aug
0.48%
0.80%25 Aug
0.47%30 Aug
0.25%2 Sep
0.45%
0.61%
0.16%3 Sep
0.61%
0.60%
1.45%
0.19%
0.48%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes63.5%877 in total
Reposts4.1%57 in total
Replies10.0%138 in total
Quotes1.3%18 in total
Bookmarks21.1%292 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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