Dean W. Ball ✓
@deanwball · Washington, DC · joined 12 Apr 2009
head of strategic futures @openai | views mine, and mine alone
73 741Followers
1 798Following
13 749Posts total
4MViews on collected posts
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One of the words I never thought I’d use to describe our baby son is “brave.” But he is. Today he has a bad fever and is clearly in some pain but he also still wants stories, and is mostly still his laughing, smiling self. He is so brave, and I love him to an unspeakable degree.
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Astra is a remarkable piece of technology.
Earlier agents often tried to dampen my ambitions—they’d push me to do “pilots” or “proofs of concept.” Then agents started meeting my ambitions.
Astra is the first agent that routinely raises my ambitions. I encourage you to try it!
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My dream feature for signal would be a “call this person later” button. Various potential calls pop up throughout my day (often more than a dozen) and it’d be so awesome, as the day is wrapping, to have a filter button that pulls up a “call sheet,” as they used to refer to these.
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@deanwball OpenAI could already ask independent experts to review its work at a deeper level of auditing. This used to be your position that it ought to be done voluntarily. I agree with your position now that it should be mandatory but you could establish the precedent and accel
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@deanwball So why wait? When does OpenAI invite the relevant experts to assess Astra and report on the relevant CoT degration of the method? There is credible reporting that OAI has done something extremely concerning. Without such transparency, how does this not kick off a race?
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@deanwball I would love for the institutions to exist, as you know. And I really do feel for your comms team, who is now in the no-good-options world of either stepping on their launch comms by releasing something now, or gritting their teeth and bearing it and trying to add som
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this latest panic over the false claim that OpenAI is “doing neuralese” underscores the need for regulation, especially the rapid institutionalization of auditing and technical assessment of frontier AI labs.
We are now adjudicating technically complex and nuanced claims on the
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Fully endorse every word of what Jakub (OpenAI’s research director) says here. Exploring legal mechanisms to prevent this race has been an early topic of my own work at OpenAI.
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One clarification: while I do believe the *existence* of self-sovereign agents is inevitable, I am not saying it is inevitable that there will be a huge number of them or that they will matter tremendously in the economy. These are certainly possible outcomes, but not inevitable.
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I've had an essay on this same topic ready to go for a while, almost time to ship. Look for it on Hyperdimensional soon!
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I do find it funny that (1) 400 something people liked this tweet, (2) people on this site have a tendency to obsess about my right wing politics and (3) no one has observed that the one podcast on this list that I pay for is a leftist podcast about military affairs
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@deanwball Dean, your tastes are impressive! You're obviously a scholar and a gentleman :)
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the podcast not on this list that I no longer have time for but is imo the most underrated podcast of all time is @RoderickOn
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@deanwball UBI doesn't poll poorly because people "want to work." There are countless other polls that show that people hate their jobs.
They simply don't trust the execution of UBI to be fair or a deal they win on. They're used to being taken advantage of, and that's fair.
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@deanwball The people intuit the dangers of gradual disempowerment.
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@deanwball how much of that is "they actually want to work at the Human Grinding Corporation" and how much of it is "they don't trust the concept of UBI to actually work"
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People in AI discourse generally ignore the fact that UBI consistently polls very poorly. People want to work.
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AI policy data dump! Here's what 56,000 Americans told CSAIP about 79 AI policies:
Significant support for policies that are straightforwardly redistributive (transfer resources from corporations/wealthiest to support workers/families), & that put AI companies on the hook https:
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@deanwball I mean, we could also raise taxes but that, unlike cutting social security would effect you personally that’s off the table eh?
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@deanwball This is just bog-standard anti-Social Security rhetoric that has existed since FDR, with a techie veneer.
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@deanwball the specifics of this argument are obviously well-trod/not much more meaningful than religious sects invoking their antagonists historical villainy in ceremonies
but: isn't this a weird concern to have when you've premised your career on an imminent explosion of growt
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The main thing I have to say to the young generation of Americans is that your grandparents and great-grandparents committed a kind of accounting fraud when they ran our country a century ago with social security, and at the time it was a reasonable affordance to grant our
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I'm so excited to share my book with you guys. it's been a real labor of love, the hardest intellectual project I've ever undertaken other than raising a child, and it's still only a quarter done. it's weird, I hope in a good way. in some sense it is too ambitious, and I kind of
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@deanwball Yes, and then 6-12 months there’ll be yet another comparable jump, and then another… really tough to comprehend and even imagine what that could be like
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@deanwball Unless of course it's one of those naughty pandemic forensics problems that I am having a very hard time getting GPT 5.6 to play along with even though it is in effect historical research and not novel development of any kind.
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@deanwball Can you define soon for us plebs thanks.
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Everyone in the world will soon be able to use the model that made these breakthroughs for every problem they face in life, no matter how mundane, at a cost that will fall dramatically in a matter of months. I still struggle to get my head around this fact.
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ten significant advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science.
solved using an internal version of Astra, our next major model, for a total cost of about $2000 at Sol API prices:
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@deanwball @OpenAI Congratulations!! Tremendously excited for both you and OpenAI.
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Against accounts of the same size
23 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.
Median views9 307this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %12.62%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %1.10%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
| Metric | This account | Median for 10K–100K | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 9 307 | 924 | 10.1× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 12.62% | 3.62% | 3.49× |
| Engagement rate | 1.10% | 1.52% | 0.72× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
83528 Aug
5.5K31 Aug
2.3K
3.6K1 Sep
48.4K
10.1K2 Sep
22.5K
101.2K
496
1.1K
1.7K
9.3K
18.1K3 Sep
5K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
7.07%28 Aug
0.45%31 Aug
1.10%
0.36%1 Sep
0.13%
0.82%2 Sep
1.07%
0.54%
6.65%
1.65%
1.84%
0.84%
1.67%3 Sep
3.12%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.
What the audience does
Likes80.2%14 256 in total
Reposts4.0%710 in total
Replies6.4%1 144 in total
Quotes2.9%515 in total
Bookmarks6.5%1 158 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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