Jennifer Kavanagh

@jekavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities. Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation. Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.

9 101Followers

638Following

6 553Posts total

306.1KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

@jekavanagh I agree if 🇺🇸 withdraws its defence guarantee, 🇯🇵 has the capability to provide for its own defence. However, it can only do so by acquiring a nuclear weapon. If it tries to do that, 🇨🇳 is likely to use force to prevent it. The resulting war would be contrary to 🇺🇸 i 28.4K views · 106 likes · 31 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

Then there is the question of Chinese coercion or interdiction. Physical interdiction by China of U.S. access to markets in Asia would be difficult or impossible. There are simply too many alternative trade routes and the distances too vast. China could block off the South China 7.4K views · 35 likes · 5 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

Economics. A second area of criticism is that the report does not sufficiently address economic risks. The question of access to semiconductors and other high-tech products that the United States relies on Asia for is important. In the report, I emphasize that the United States 8.1K views · 48 likes · 5 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

(3) American decline. Many criticisms suggest that I am encouraging, accepting, or recommending American decline. The surest path to American decline is not what I have recommended but a decision to retain the massive portfolio of global commitments that the United States is 15.5K views · 68 likes · 12 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

(4) Motivations and Funding. Many of the comments here question my motivation and loyalties. These are unserious and immature criticisms. My organization does not take government money, U.S. or foreign. I have spent my entire life working to advance U.S. national security 42.8K views · 121 likes · 13 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

In any case, the expansive commitments the United States has made in the past are simply not sustainable anymore and must be revisited. The war in the Middle East has shown the limits of U.S. military power and the vulnerabilities and shortcomings of the U.S. way of war. U.S. 11K views · 57 likes · 15 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

The report does not recommend cutting all ties with allies. It recommends getting rid of security guarantees made decades ago and replacing them with narrow security partnerships. These might include cooperation on specific tasks, joint defense industrial projects, some training 33.4K views · 69 likes · 12 reposts · 7 replies Open on X →

Jennifer Kavanagh@jekavanagh13 Sep

So, I wrote a report, and it got a lot of feedback. I hoped the report would open a wider debate on posture and strategy in Asia. It did that, so in that spirit, I will respond to some of the common criticisms. They are grouped into four categories: security, economics, 159.6K views · 200 likes · 52 reposts · 43 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

8 posts from the last 90 days, next to the under 10K follower range. ordinary reach for its size, weaker reaction than most.

Median views21 936this account4 608median for under 10K

Reach, %241.03%this account287.50%median for under 10K

Engagement, %0.54%this account1.38%median for under 10K

Metric	This account	Median for under 10K	Ratio
Median views per post	21 936	4 608	4.76×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	2.4× audience	2.9× audience	0.84×
Engagement rate	0.54%	1.38%	0.39×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

159.6K13 Sep

33.4K

11K

42.8K

15.5K

8.1K

7.4K

28.4K

Last 8 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.21%13 Sep

0.28%

0.71%

0.36%

0.57%

0.73%

0.57%

0.51%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for under 10K accounts is 1.38%.

What the audience does

Likes56.0%704 in total

Reposts11.5%145 in total

Replies6.4%80 in total

Quotes4.8%61 in total

Bookmarks21.3%268 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Similar accounts