John Arnold ✓
@johnarnold · Houston · joined 17 Oct 2013
Co-chair of Arnold Ventures. Reality is more nuanced than the headline.
137 036Followers
481Following
10 513Posts total
1.8MViews on collected posts
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Potential GDP growth = labor supply growth + productivity growth
The challenge with returning to +/- 3.5% GDP growth is that potential employment is now flat for the first time in modern era. We achieved >3% GDP growth in previous decades because employment was growing at 1.5%+.
15K views · 114 likes
· 14 reposts · 21 replies
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I’m moderately optimistic that the data center backlash has peaked. A month ago there were many calls for moratoriums. The discussion feels more nuanced even in the past few weeks, changing from whether to ban to how to develop responsibly.
More politicians are leaning in by htt
75K views · 477 likes
· 41 reposts · 75 replies
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@johnarnold One option that is also politically unpopular is making non-profits less tax favored. A billionaire buys a painting for x, it becomes worth 10x, gives it to a museum and income tax goes down. Should there be a cap on % of estate that can be donated?
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This video is amazing because it's 3 minutes about how terrible Flock cameras are and then the last 20 seconds saying we need a constitutional way in which we can find a kidnapper or someone who wondered off with dementia, exactly describing Flock cameras.
https://t.co/v2f4uQ3x61
53.8K views · 250 likes
· 11 reposts · 26 replies
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3:20
Politicians from across political spectrum coalesce around these 6 principles on data centers:
1) Pay direct & indirect power costs
2) Sustainable water usage
3) Communities have voice
4) Large community benefit
5) Rethink tax incentives
6) Transparency on the above
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· 18 reposts · 14 replies
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Maybe AI will lead to GDP growth that makes all previous debt inconsequential AND will not need to be paired with new income supports for any associated job disruption. It's within the realm of possibility. It better. It's essentially the only way out of this.
16/16.
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We can debate when the debt becomes a serious problem. We’re seeing impacts now through higher interest rates and inflation that affect the cost of living. Perhaps this episode is transitory. But debt cannot grow faster than the economy indefinitely without consequences.
15/
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· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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Politics of revenue increases is just as hard as spending cuts. Rs keep cutting taxes while Ds now call for a middle class tax cut. A future D tax increase on the wealthy would likely offset that cut and/or be a pay-for on new healthcare, childcare, or elder care spending.
14/
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· 2 reposts · 3 replies
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If my point is correct that there is little viable pathway to cut spending from current levels, that leaves one of three options: we have a revenue problem, we have a debt problem, or rapid future growth will render this problem moot.
13/
10K views · 79 likes
· 3 reposts · 3 replies
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People look at the rise in spending as % of GDP and say just reverse the past 20 year increase. The hard part is listing the specific cuts that could get 50 or 60 votes in the Senate. I have much firsthand experience trying to do that. Every expenditure has a constituency.
12/
10.2K views · 93 likes
· 2 reposts · 4 replies
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There's always the proverbial waste, fraud, abuse. Politicians since Reagan have promised to root it out.
There is real waste. More effort should go toward reducing it. But as DOGE showed, finding and eliminating it is easier said than done. It alone won't be nearly enough.
11/
10.5K views · 121 likes
· 1 reposts · 3 replies
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Almost all spending falls into at least 1 of these buckets:
- has demographic pressures
- would trigger massive voter backlash
- easiest cuts were already taken for tax cuts
- has bipartisan support to spend more, not less
- is interest payments
- is defense-related
10/
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· 3 reposts · 1 replies
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9. Transportation (2%) - Broad mix of highways, aviation, mass transit, and rail. Last change in this category was bipartisan infrastructure bill to increase spending
10. Natural Resources and Environment (1%) - Water and federal lands and parks. Broad political support.
9/
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· 0 reposts · 1 replies
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7. Veterans benefits (5%) - Zero political interest in cutting
8. Ed, Training, and Employment - K-12 grants (no current proposals to cut), Pell Grants and student loans (Rs recently cut student loans, Ds propose to increase Pell), job training (likely to increase due to AI).
8/
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6. Income Security (10%) - Composed of federal pensions (cannot be cut); SNAP (Rs did cut in 2025, no further cuts are proposed; Ds would likely reverse the cut); EITC & Child Tax Credit (many proposals to increase in response to AI); rest of programs are very small.
7/
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4. Interest (14%) - Not discretionary. Debt and rate increases mean interest costs are going up.
5. Defense (13%) - Increasing due to geopolitical tumult. Progressives introduce messaging bills with unspecified cuts. Moderates support steady bumps. Trump wants large increase.
6/
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3. Health (14%) - Medicaid, ACA subsidies, CHIP, and research. Republicans did institute work requirements in Medicaid and lowered subsidies to states last year, a long-standing wish. There are no current R proposals to cut more and Ds would likely repeal the R cuts.
5/
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2. Medicare (14%) - Any cut to benefits is viewed as political suicide so neither party proposes it. Ds propose expanding dental, vision, and hearing or lowering the eligible age. The small savings from reforming drug pricing was given to beneficiaries via lower out of pocket.
4/
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1. Social Security (23% of total spending) - In the early 2010s, there were bipartisan proposals to slow social security spending by changing CPI and COLA formulas. Today it's the opposite. Progressives introduced the SS Expansion Act while MAGA has taken any cuts off table.
3/
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Deficit ($2.05 trillion) = Revenue ($5.40 T) - Spending ($7.45 T)
The top 10 categories make up 97% of federal spending. Want to cut spending, it you have to find it from this list. The problem is there isn't will to cut any more from these. Let's go through the list.
2/
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· 1 reposts · 2 replies
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A common political line is that America doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem. Maybe. But is there any viable pathway to materially cutting spending? I'll show there isn't. That leaves us with either a revenue problem or a debt/deficit problem. You choose.
1/n
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· 105 reposts · 132 replies
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@johnarnold In England 3 years is the norm.
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hahaha....
The American Association of University Professors, for one, says the programs devalue the meaning of a college credential.
“This is not innovation. This is just cutting corners,” said Todd Wolfson, AAUP’s president.
https://t.co/CJdqtrUDeP
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There are likely many majors in which a 3-year degree can deliver >95% of the value for 75% of the time and cost. It's one of the most promising experiments to improve the value proposition of college.
The most vocal critic: the American Association of University Professors. htt
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· 108 reposts · 188 replies
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GE appliance manufacturing, 1950 and 2026. https://t.co/5IMzuY4NZk
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@johnarnold Rutgers and MSM have claimed for forty years that I can remember that they will be nation champions. Rutgers, last national championship was in 1869. They are pouring money down the toilet.
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@johnarnold That’s what happens when you hire Chris Christie’s henchmen to be your AD
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Friend of mine signed up online to bring donuts to his son's classroom and was offered a $25 credit to gamble on Kalshi because of course. https://t.co/SKYr2vZnbs
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@johnarnold A full accounting of sports programs would need to apportion some of the alumni donations they exist to foster – $856M to UCLA in 2023.
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@johnarnold Football pays for itself. Basketball too. The debate is whether colleges should hemorrhage money so Suzy can play field hockey and Johnny can play lacrosse. It’s basically a free gift to those players and their families at the expense of everyone else.
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Against accounts of the same size
46 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 100K–1M follower range. shown to more people than peers of the same size.
Median views10 674this account5 983median for 100K–1M
Reach, %7.79%this account1.49%median for 100K–1M
Engagement, %0.91%this account0.93%median for 100K–1M
| Metric | This account | Median for 100K–1M | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 10 674 | 5 983 | 1.78× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 7.79% | 1.49% | 5.23× |
| Engagement rate | 0.91% | 0.93% | 0.98× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
11.1K4 Sep
10.7K
10.6K
10.5K
10.2K
10K
9K
11.2K
10.8K
21.4K
53.8K
1.5K
75K5 Sep
15K6 Sep
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.57%4 Sep
0.54%
0.99%
1.19%
0.97%
0.85%
0.79%
0.83%
1.19%
1.07%
0.54%
1.52%
0.81%5 Sep
1.01%6 Sep
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 100K–1M accounts is 0.93%.
What the audience does
Likes73.2%5 598 in total
Reposts4.5%342 in total
Replies7.6%581 in total
Quotes1.8%136 in total
Bookmarks13.0%994 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.
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