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Jon Charbonneau 🇺🇸 ✓

@jon_charb · joined 21 Jan 2022

Co-Founder & General Partner @dba_xyz

27 088Followers
588Following
11 634Posts total
1MViews on collected posts

Latest posts

The P(doom) forecasts I actually want to see: 1) prediction markets on P(doom)* for given dates 2) conditional markets showing change in P(doom) for specific actions (e.g., how much does P(doom) shift for date X if the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act is enacted by date Y) 5K views · 31 likes · 0 reposts · 9 replies Open on X →
exactly this random AI employees aren't experts in forecasting p(doom) p(doom) is a thought experiment requiring broad real world understanding more than AI tech expertise similarly this is why the AI labs have all been wrong about predicting economic impacts of AI to date 3.9K views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →
"GPT-6 Astra shows a substantial decrease in chain-of-thought monitorability compared to previous models" Astra has increased ability to control or shorten its CoT to evade monitors under adversarial conditions Mech interp importance is increasing https://t.co/TnflzetIhU https:
3.5K views · 13 likes · 0 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →
the nonsensical decel anti-growth mindset is the biggest fundamental issue with the Dems theres ~3 big economic levers - growth, taxes, & government spending neither party has great policy on taxes or govt spending but being pro-growth bails you out of a lot https://t.co/mIcNM
2.1K views · 17 likes · 0 reposts · 8 replies Open on X →
*monitor-ability* is the invariant that must be preserved, and the real solution will be via strong mechanistic interpretability. i predict in the next year there’ll be mechinterp monitoring that’s pareto optimal to cot monitors 152.2K views · 531 likes · 18 reposts · 42 replies Open on X →
just found out "APY is not currently available to residents of New York" many such cases 4.3K views · 14 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →
@jon_charb guess you’re so used to solana culture you think Jeff will insta-dump once the locks expire mind your own business, buddy 1.2K views · 34 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →
@jon_charb Yeah no. There’s a reason Jeff is him and you are you. 1.1K views · 37 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →
@jon_charb Absolutely foolish and a disaster. Using future emissions is the most powerful growth and competitive tool @HyperliquidX has at hand. This would freeze in those of us with large $HYPE stacks and crush growth. Your post is one dimensional with no evidence. 4.2K views · 65 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →
https://t.co/IFVcvsalLd 823.7K views · 818 likes · 97 reposts · 125 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

6 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views4 079this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %15.06%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %0.47%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
MetricThis accountMedian for 10K–100KRatio
Median views per post4 0799244.41×
Reach (views ÷ followers)15.06%3.62%4.16×
Engagement rate0.47%1.52%0.31×

Others in this range →   Compare with another account →   How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

823.7K22 Sep
4.2K
1.1K
1.2K
4.3K1 Sep
152.2K2 Sep
2.1K3 Sep
3.5K
3.9K11 Sep
5K

Last 10 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.14%22 Sep
1.61%
3.31%
2.74%
0.38%1 Sep
0.41%2 Sep
1.18%3 Sep
0.54%
0.41%11 Sep
0.86%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes63.6%1 573 in total
Reposts4.6%115 in total
Replies8.0%197 in total
Quotes6.6%164 in total
Bookmarks17.2%426 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

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