Kyle Kondik

@kkondik · DC; kondik@virginia.edu · joined 13 Feb 2011

American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT

61 245Followers

4 103Following

79 576Posts total

65.8KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Kyle Kondik@kkondik9 Sep

Economist/YouGov goes to a Likely Voter screen and the Dem edge shoots up to 49-38. Its registered voter results recently had been more like D+6. Now, maybe the screen is too tight, etc. -- but with Labor Day in the rearview we'll be seeing more switches to LV models 3K views · 32 likes · 12 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik9 Sep

Economist/YouGov poll | 9/4-9/8 (Likely voters) Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟦Democratic 49% 🟥Republican 38% — (Adults) Generic congressional ballot 2026 🟦Democratic 42% 🟥Republican 35% —— (Likely voters) President Trump approval ❌Disapprove 61% ✅Approve 37% — https://t.c

10.9K views · 112 likes · 28 reposts · 15 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik9 Sep

at first blush, this kind of fits in with recent stories of R candidates removing Trump references from their websites 8.1K views · 42 likes · 10 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik8 Sep

In re the ongoing Missouri drama 10.6K views · 30 likes · 4 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik8 Sep

This ruling comes in a separate case, the lawsuit filed by aggrieved candidates over the weekend. That's why it can exist on a parallel track with the SCOTUS decision. That said, when this is appealed, I'm not sure SCOTUS will rule any differently than they did today. 17.9K views · 70 likes · 13 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik8 Sep

Well apparently the legal drama in Missouri continues. So we won’t make the Missouri rating changes official yet. 15.2K views · 99 likes · 13 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Kyle Kondik@kkondik27 Oct 2021

My new history of House elections since the 1960s, "The Long Red Thread," is now available. We published an excerpt today that hits on the key trends over the past half century in the House https://t.co/L4qWYIlHVh https://t.co/Lv5V1exyg2

0 views · 265 likes · 46 reposts · 25 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

6 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views10 753this account999median for 10K–100K

Reach, %17.56%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.71%this account1.92%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	10 753	999	10.8×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	17.56%	3.62%	4.85×
Engagement rate	0.71%	1.92%	0.37×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

15.2K8 Sep

17.9K

10.6K

8.1K9 Sep

10.9K

Last 6 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.77%8 Sep

0.49%

0.32%

0.65%9 Sep

1.54%

1.56%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.92%.

What the audience does

Likes74.6%385 in total

Reposts15.5%80 in total

Replies4.8%25 in total

Quotes3.1%16 in total

Bookmarks1.9%10 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

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