Yet another commodity guy ✓

@tleilax___ · Genève · joined 17 Feb 2012

Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven

52 920Followers

2 993Following

16 337Posts total

383.8KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

I expect the Saudi to be able to restart the pipeline in degraded mode over the coming few days. I also expect the Houthis to make a few more attempts at disabling it. As a consequene here's a little Saudi West Coast balance sheet and time to tank bottoms, under the assumption

46.7K views · 360 likes · 45 reposts · 18 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

A few thoughts about pipeline repair and operations. East-West pipeline is looped (eg two parallel lines) 52,000 hp per station on larger loop across 11 stations. Theoretically the pipeline can operate (once pipe itself is repaired) with one less pumping station at a reduced 67.5K views · 78 likes · 28 reposts · 17 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

Always has been. Henry de Monfreid, the son of a bourgeois art collector, turned smuggler and shipowner told much about it in his books. https://t.co/VsGOx1yTTG 18.4K views · 85 likes · 1 reposts · 9 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

Corollary : There is not much spare dollar among Gulf monarchies at the moment to buy US Treasuries. We may even see a reversed petrodollar flow if they are forced to sell Treasuries to fund their social and military programs. The cashflow from 3.6 mbld @ $90 is nowhere near 18K views · 183 likes · 26 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

Bloomberg bros of the world, unite ! If he's short oil and long bonds at central bank scale the MtM must be absolutely lit. No idea where this gets accounted for in the books or reported. 26.8K views · 243 likes · 5 reposts · 10 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___12 Sep

Saudi Arabia update. Their net surplus was 3.62 mbld over the last 4 weeks, it is now expected to slow down. They are already drawing on their crude inventories and will keep doing so as long as the east/west pipeline is offline. As said before, the Red Sea exports are quite ht

29.3K views · 101 likes · 11 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Yet another commodity guy ✓@tleilax___17 Apr

Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery 177.1K views · 710 likes · 67 reposts · 25 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

6 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views28 030this account924median for 10K–100K

Reach, %52.97%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.71%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	28 030	924	30.3×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	52.97%	3.62%	14.6×
Engagement rate	0.71%	1.52%	0.47×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

177.1K17 Apr

29.3K12 Sep

26.8K

18K

18.4K

67.5K

46.7K

Last 7 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.45%17 Apr

0.39%12 Sep

0.96%

1.19%

0.52%

0.18%

0.91%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes54.5%1 760 in total

Reposts5.7%183 in total

Replies2.7%87 in total

Bookmarks37.1%1 198 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

The follower curve appears once this account has two daily snapshots — we take one a day, and this one is on its first.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Similar accounts