Willy Woo ✓
@willywoo · Orbiting a main sequence star · joined 13 Feb 2008
#Bitcoin analysis since 2016... onchain data, market structure, research... I only post here, all other channels especially Telegram are scams.
1 239 535Followers
343Following
13 558Posts total
14.5MViews on collected posts
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A hidden divergence like this is a trend continuation signal.
CHART:
After 1 year of outperformance by GOLD, the main 17yr historical trend of BTC OUTPERFORMANCE has resumed. https://t.co/3jz9qcGnCT
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Let’s clear up a misunderstanding.
“BTC is pristine collateral”
It is for them, NOT for you.
When you borrow, front the stinkiest dogshit collateral they will take.
For example your home loan... The bank doesn’t even know how much it’s worth. Takes months to sell. They pray h
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GIF
Seems like there's more room in this move over the coming 2-4 weeks before it's overbought and needs cool down.
PS. the recent cool off in this oscillator (late Aug to mid Sep) while price remained strong was a sign that buying demand was winning over short term profit takers. h
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Yup.
Buying started scaling in from Feb, just kept getting stronger. Sellers exhausted.
Absorbing the Clarity act dump from predominately US sellers was this recent springboard.
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A bear trap immediately followed by a spring board
This is not something to be taken casually
This can be powerful
$BTC https://t.co/rsg1u5KVQm
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Published in 2002, Fisher Transform picks up turning points in price action.
BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out.
Latest cross is the 4th on record. https://t.co/lFdP1V2JN2
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I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%.
We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.
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I see the US selling with the failed Clarity Act (on Coinbase)
Meanwhile the more dominant global offshore continues accumulating (on Binance).
Bullish. https://t.co/cYKUaXjLh5
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I lost both my parents to cancer by 18. Thought I would die young too.
Then uncovered a hack…
At 28 I quit my corporate engineering job and traveled the world. A new place every 2-3 days.
I lived a lifetime in that 6 month trip.
Upon return a colleague said “hey, I thought
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We have an ANOMALY.
Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale.
When it's many investors, you expect to see spikes in buying activity. That's happened every time across 17.5 years of Hodl Wave data except now. https://t.co/1cU23USB3R
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My portfolio company Biltz Wallet just released a feature that lets you setup wallets for friends and family who may be new to BTC while you do the tricky work of secure custody of the private key.
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Interesting read.
Using River's inflow numbers over the next 3-5 years, but accounting for changes in market elasticity over time (MVRV oscillations), I get a range of approx 220k-600k per BTC.
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@willywoo Shut the fuck up they said that last time and it was the worst cycle ever
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There's also this setup relative to global macro / equities.
https://t.co/JvUOfwPhz8
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The structural data...
LIQUIDITY CYCLE
Our internal model liquidity for BTC → In a normal cycle bottom we'd expect a much lower trough, this shallow trough is akin to a mid bull market dip.
RISK MODEL
Tracks buy-sided investor liquidity → Structural bottoms happen on https://t
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About that MYTHICAL SUPER CYCLE that never came...
For the first time I'm seeing structural data hinting it may be developing. https://t.co/zwMCgptier
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It's almost been a decade since the last time this happened...
The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market). https://t.co/7edAabONSA
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@willywoo Here is the PMI since its inception (courtesy of grok). It looks like it ran on a 4 year cycle from Bitcoin's genesis until 2021, then its longer. And prior to Bitcoin is was much more variable. https://t.co/1Diel5640P
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@willywoo Once the halving effect thins out, macro cycles get louder by default.
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BTC MOVES TO A 6-8 YEAR CYCLE?
BTC has been locked into the gravity of a 4 year orbit... it was subject to strong internal forces of its halvening... a clockwork 4yr supply rate shock.
Meanwhile TradFi is on a 6-8 year short term debt cycle.
Given BTC's internal forces are de
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@willywoo @GaryCardone Still less than 0.28% of Global Capital, much higher, much sooner. https://t.co/nntqXmyzhf
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@willywoo @GaryCardone Great to see you Bull posting again Willy.
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@willywoo @GaryCardone And real estate?
Bitcoin is not coming for gold, it is coming for everything.
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@GaryCardone Gold is 32 Trilly.
The greatest delusion exported by US Government and amplified by Wall St is that gold is a financial asset.
It was money for 1000s of years.
If it had continued to back all the world’s money today it would be worth 103T.
That’s what BTC is goi
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@willywoo Bitcoin's next bull market will be cheered on by Wall Street, the largest banks, and at least 20 nation-states. This may be the last chance to front-run them.
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Look at the comments... people can't fathom BTC has higher adoption than S&P500 and Gold.
The trick is to understand 4-5% of the world use SPX+Gold as an investment while BTC is also used to solve a monetary problem - especially where capital controls or hyperinflation exists.
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If you want to see the adoption growth over time, back in 2023, I put the results of all past studies on a chart over time.
Scroll down on this page for sources and methodology
https://t.co/U3Kud2Vtrb https://t.co/f9D08W4Kvf
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BTC ownership by country.
4.5 - 6% global adoption. https://t.co/TpgCMMU2Kx
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Against accounts of the same size
36 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 1M–10M follower range. shown far beyond its own audience, and the audience reacts.
Median views121 950this account14 648median for 1M–10M
Reach, %9.84%this account0.74%median for 1M–10M
Engagement, %0.96%this account0.70%median for 1M–10M
| Metric | This account | Median for 1M–10M | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median views per post | 121 950 | 14 648 | 8.33× |
| Reach (views ÷ followers) | 9.84% | 0.74% | 13.3× |
| Engagement rate | 0.96% | 0.70% | 1.37× |
Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →
Growth & engagement
How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.
Views per post
29.2K8 Sep
4.4K
122.2K
79.9K9 Sep
224.5K11 Sep
493.7K12 Sep
160.6K16 Sep
478.5K
244.3K18 Sep
792.5K
177.6K
119.5K21 Sep
121.7K23 Sep
90.9K
Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.
Engagement rate per post
0.50%8 Sep
0.61%
1.13%
0.39%9 Sep
1.07%11 Sep
1.03%12 Sep
2.44%16 Sep
1.56%
0.91%18 Sep
0.86%
1.18%
1.68%21 Sep
0.83%23 Sep
1.66%
Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 1M–10M accounts is 0.70%.
What the audience does
Likes76.7%48 469 in total
Reposts7.0%4 409 in total
Replies3.5%2 200 in total
Quotes0.9%596 in total
Bookmarks11.9%7 539 in total
Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.
Followers by day
22 Sep
Daily snapshots since 22 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.
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