Kevin A. Bryan

@Afinetheorem · Toronto, ON, Canada · joined 16 Feb 2015

Assoc. Prof. of Strategy, U Toronto Rotman | Chief Economist, CDL Toronto | Co-Founder, AllDayTA | Ars longa, vita brevis, occasio praeceps (especially now)

23 032Followers

21Following

15 946Posts total

334.8KViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

Nov 2025 LEAP panel of AI experts and superforecasters: 10% chance of AI helping solve a Millennium problem by 2027. "One expert cites the Clay president's June 2025 claim: “We're very far away from AI being able to say anything serious about any of those problems” (Heaven 2025)"

1.4K views · 23 likes · 6 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

And in addition to Navier-Stokes, an amazing scientific tool from DeepMind 696 views · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

A few things on Navier-Stokes. 1) An unreal achievement, 2) $15 million dollars of output (300,000m tokens at $50/m)!, 3) they explicitly claim they never looked at user data from the NYU/Anthropic team, 4) I would release literally everything given the gravity of the accusation. 3K views · 51 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

AlphaFold: predicting the protein structure from amino acid sequence for >200 million proteins (awarded @NobelPrize) Today Alpha Genome Atlas: predicting the molecular impact of all 9 billion variants of the human genome https://t.co/UnqFEin41C 20.4K views · 332 likes · 69 reposts · 10 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

Just to be clear: stupid rumor based on insinuation in the Navier-Stokes letter that OAI folks may have "read the chat transcripts to get the idea" makes no sense to anyone who knows how these models work or how the data contracts work. As Sholto says, please stop repeating this. 25.1K views · 185 likes · 9 reposts · 15 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

US and Canada hold up quite well in PISA 2025...but only relative to global collapse due to COVID/phones still not recovered, esp. for reading scores which just continue to plummet (some of which are now shocking even in well-off countries). 4.8K views · 20 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem8 Sep

@vvkgopalan there is no way this happened and you know it - I think important to not let this rumour spread 39.5K views · 181 likes · 10 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem2 Sep

@Afinetheorem traders too. can arb this thing. 794 views · 2 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem2 Sep

(Or put another way, San Francisco isn't going to become robot YIMBY for housing construction six years from now no matter what happens to the tech...) 1.2K views · 18 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem2 Sep

I love this bet. Not a gambling man myself, but just to be clear, 99.9% of economists would take the no-fast-growth side if forced. 15% annual growth by 2033 would require implausible diffusion speed. Think about Waymo diffusion given their tech, and apply broadly... 26.7K views · 109 likes · 9 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem1 Sep

Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake! Total size of pot now $425,000! https://t.co/NSQZKbfBIy https://t.co/CzACD8oe1l

140.5K views · 271 likes · 13 reposts · 19 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem28 Aug

(And one follow-up from DMs - def a case for the top 20 or so. But a *lot* of good-but-not-really-transformative folks, mid-career, at random institutions, hired with $8m research budgets (5x the next highest standard Canada grant), which does not seem like good value for money) 2.3K views · 5 likes · 0 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

(Btw, the most surprising thing is that there are zero computer science or robotics hires, with perhaps the exception TBW, who applies AI to ecological conservation. Some interesting AI-adjacent biomedical folks, but I am sure these areas were priorities, and yet...) 5.1K views · 16 likes · 1 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

@Afinetheorem Our hire of Fatih G from Minnesota two years ago is a bigger deal than virtually all of these. 4.3K views · 16 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

Still seems to be a successful program with a few very very big names, but not really at the "recruit 64 world-class folks" given the $ involved, and still with the historic pattern that top hires away from the US tend to be citizens of the hiring country. 4/4 5.3K views · 16 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

From a little work with AI and Google Scholar, I'd put 21 of 64 in the "these would be a better than average, clearly, hire for a top Canadian university". I suppose that's a bit disappointing given the huge amount of money devoted, but it was a quick program. 2/4 6.5K views · 15 likes · 0 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

Of those 21, 4 came from outside the US. Of the remaining 17, 9 are Canadian. Still some great hires, e.g., Sara Seager, but maybe less surprising. The remaining 8: some combination of declining US funding in the area + many-millions lab packages. 3/4 5.6K views · 11 likes · 0 reposts · 1 replies Open on X →

Kevin A. Bryan@Afinetheorem27 Aug

Canada announced the 64 chairs of their huge intl recruitment drive. Some major stars (we are bringing Ray Fisman to Rotman) so I was curious about what the nature of the hires way. 1/4 41.7K views · 93 likes · 8 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

18 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown widely, but few of those viewers react.

Median views5 186this account999median for 10K–100K

Reach, %22.51%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K

Engagement, %0.39%this account1.92%median for 10K–100K

Metric	This account	Median for 10K–100K	Ratio
Median views per post	5 186	999	5.19×
Reach (views ÷ followers)	22.51%	3.62%	6.22×
Engagement rate	0.39%	1.92%	0.20×

Others in this range → Compare with another account → How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

4.3K27 Aug

5.1K

2.3K28 Aug

140.5K1 Sep

26.7K2 Sep

1.2K

794

39.5K8 Sep

4.8K

25.1K

20.4K

696

1.4K

Last 14 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.40%27 Aug

0.35%

0.22%28 Aug

0.23%1 Sep

0.47%2 Sep

1.48%

0.38%

0.51%8 Sep

0.48%

0.84%

2.04%

1.81%

0.14%

2.12%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.92%.

What the audience does

Likes74.1%1 365 in total

Reposts6.8%125 in total

Replies3.7%69 in total

Quotes2.0%37 in total

Bookmarks13.4%246 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

Followers by day

8 Sep

Daily snapshots since 08 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.

Latest posts

Against accounts of the same size

Growth & engagement

Views per post

Engagement rate per post

What the audience does

Followers by day

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