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Erik Hoel ✓

@erikphoel · joined 07 Nov 2013

Scientist (Bicameral Labs) and writer on Substack. Books too, occasionally. https://t.co/CKyLzw5bHK.

23 491Followers
2 637Following
19 862Posts total
2MViews on collected posts

Latest posts

Truly sad to see the intellectual commons become a Dark Forest https://t.co/Q4yXv962OS
66.7K views · 2.5K likes · 242 reposts · 12 replies Open on X →
A new risk for mathematicians: a colleague reports that immediately after they posted an abstract of their upcoming talk online, a student elsewhere used AI to derive proofs of the stated results and then posted it on the arxiv. My colleague hadn't posted to arxiv yet. 292.7K views · 3K likes · 208 reposts · 83 replies Open on X →
I think the central distinction between the columns is not necessarily a label but “takes utilitarianism literally.” If you take utilitarianism literally why *wouldn’t* you be on the side of AI? Just as AI is easier to put capital into and get intelligence out of it’s also easier 1.6K views · 14 likes · 3 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →
Two radically different projects operate under the banner of “AI safety.” Pro-Human Safety is not Effective Altruist Lab Safety. https://t.co/NJoVTOqsD2
215.5K views · 408 likes · 58 reposts · 152 replies Open on X →
Me admitting that existential risk is on the table: all the components are there. That doesn’t mean the risk is high but the Manhattan project required atmosphere ignition to be less than a “three in a million” chance. Can anyone say for sure existential risk is clearly less? htt
2.4K views · 37 likes · 0 reposts · 3 replies Open on X →
Nice to hear a member of congress cite John von Neumann’s “can we survive technology?” and mention “successors” - this stuff is all quite understandable but for some reason it was considered arcane stuff few or no politicians would bother to understand 1.6K views · 24 likes · 2 reposts · 0 replies Open on X →
There are certain moments wherein the veil is thin and many futures possible. Today I’m in DC supporting a ban on superintelligence and here’s an essay I wrote on why. https://t.co/nBzsOfdLq8 43.4K views · 147 likes · 20 reposts · 6 replies Open on X →
@erikphoel https://t.co/F3OPCsb0bD
0:10
54.5K views · 64 likes · 13 reposts · 2 replies Open on X →
Try to like or RT and see what happens lol https://t.co/rDi6csWiE0 112.9K views · 45 likes · 6 reposts · 5 replies Open on X →
Elon Musk has blocked all Substack links on Twitter from being RTed or liked. This gives huge advantage to the MSM he claims is bad, but ok. Canceled my Twitter blue, and likely won't be on this godforsaken platform for much longer. Please follow me on Substack (link below) 1.2M views · 1.6K likes · 310 reposts · 145 replies Open on X →

Against accounts of the same size

7 posts from the last 90 days, next to the 10K–100K follower range. shown to more people than peers of the same size.

Median views43 366this account924median for 10K–100K
Reach, %184.61%this account3.62%median for 10K–100K
Engagement, %1.16%this account1.52%median for 10K–100K
MetricThis accountMedian for 10K–100KRatio
Median views per post43 36692446.9×
Reach (views ÷ followers)184.61%3.62%51.0×
Engagement rate1.16%1.52%0.76×

Others in this range →   Compare with another account →   How these benchmarks are built →

Growth & engagement

How the posts we collected actually performed: views and reaction rate post by post, what the audience did with them, and where the follower count goes.

Views per post

1.2M7 Apr
112.9K
54.5K
43.4K15 Sep
1.6K
2.4K
215.5K16 Sep
1.6K
292.7K18 Sep
66.7K

Last 10 collected posts, oldest on the left. The scale is logarithmic: one post can outrun the rest a hundred times over.

Engagement rate per post

0.16%7 Apr
0.05%
0.14%
0.42%15 Sep
1.65%
1.68%
0.35%16 Sep
1.09%
1.16%18 Sep
4.09%

Reactions — likes, reposts, replies and quotes — divided by views. Median for 10K–100K accounts is 1.52%.

What the audience does

Likes73.1%7 835 in total
Reposts8.0%862 in total
Replies3.8%408 in total
Quotes1.9%203 in total
Bookmarks13.2%1 417 in total

Share of every reaction we collected for this account. Replies mean argument, reposts mean endorsement, bookmarks mean the post was worth keeping.

Followers by day

15 Sep

Daily snapshots since 15 Sep 2026; the dashed line is the starting count.

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